Club Brugge II 2-3 Patro Eisden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Patro Eisden (45%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Club Brugge II face Patro Eisden.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Schiervelde Stadion plays host to Club Brugge II versus Patro Eisden in Challenger Pro League (matchday 25). Kick-off: Friday 13 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
Club Brugge II (all games): 4W 0D 6L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Club Brugge II at home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Patro Eisden's record over their last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Patro Eisden's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Patro Eisden are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head sample leans to Patro Eisden, who have 3 wins from 5 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 22 Aug 2025, ended Club Brugge II 1–2 Patro Eisden — a Patro Eisden win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Patro Eisden have won 3 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.2 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading
Club Brugge II half-time and goal-timing data (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Patro Eisden half-time and goal-timing data (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Club Brugge II 56% versus Patro Eisden 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Club Brugge II 58% | Patro Eisden 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Club Brugge II 0.98 xG and Patro Eisden 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Club Brugge II attack 0.858 / defence 0.968 | Patro Eisden attack 1.052 / defence 0.857. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 1.311. Data: built from Club Brugge II's last 52 games and Patro Eisden's last 52.
Result probabilities: Club Brugge II 28% | Draw 28% | Patro Eisden 45%. Fair-value odds: Club Brugge II 3.63 | Draw 3.61 | Patro Eisden 2.24. Patro Eisden hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Patro Eisden at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Patro Eisden if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Club Brugge II 30% (last 10 home games) | Patro Eisden 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Club Brugge II vs Patro Eisden | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 25 | Venue: Schiervelde Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 13 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Club Brugge II 28% | Draw 28% | Patro Eisden 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Club Brugge II 0.98 / Patro Eisden 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Club Brugge II attack 0.858 / def 0.968 | Patro Eisden attack 1.052 / def 0.857 | league avg home 1.337 / away 1.311 • Poisson stance: Patro Eisden (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Club Brugge II xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Patro Eisden xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Club Brugge II vs Patro Eisden FAQs
What time does Club Brugge II vs Patro Eisden kick off?
Club Brugge II vs Patro Eisden kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 13 February 2026 at Schiervelde Stadion.
What was the final score in Club Brugge II vs Patro Eisden?
Club Brugge II 2 - 3 Patro Eisden.
Where is Club Brugge II vs Patro Eisden being played?
The match is being played at Schiervelde Stadion.
What competition is Club Brugge II vs Patro Eisden part of?
Club Brugge II vs Patro Eisden is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 25) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Club Brugge II vs Patro Eisden?
Our statistical model gives Club Brugge II a 28% chance of winning, Patro Eisden a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Patro Eisden the favourite.
Will both teams score in Club Brugge II vs Patro Eisden?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Club Brugge II and Patro Eisden will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Club Brugge II vs Patro Eisden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Club Brugge II's attack at 0.86x the league average against Patro Eisden's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Patro Eisden's attack (1.05x) against Club Brugge II's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from Club Brugge II's last 52 games and Patro Eisden's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Patro Eisden Win
28%
3.63
28%
3.61
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Club Brugge II xG
Total xG
2.32
1.33
Patro Eisden xG
3.63
28%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
7%
13.77
17%
5.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 13.1 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Club Brugge II vs Patro Eisden Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Club Brugge II vs Patro Eisden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Club Brugge II and Patro Eisden expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Club Brugge II and 1.33 for Patro Eisden, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Club Brugge II vs Patro Eisden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Club Brugge II's recent record stands at 18W 9D 25L from 52 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Patro Eisden, meanwhile, have gone 25W 15D 12L across 52 games — 1.73 PPG, with W-W-W-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Patro Eisden by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Club Brugge II heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Club Brugge II have managed 10W 3D 12L from their last 25 home games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Patro Eisden's away record stands at 11W 8D 6L across their last 25 away games, a 1.64 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Club Brugge II are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Patro Eisden are on 1.58 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Club Brugge II
Blended
Patro Eisden
Blended
Club Brugge II (Home) vs Patro Eisden (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Club Brugge II
Blended
Patro Eisden
Blended
❓ Club Brugge II vs Patro Eisden Form FAQs
What form are Club Brugge II and Patro Eisden in coming into this match?
Club Brugge II have gone 18W 9D 25L in their last 52 games (1.21 PPG), while Patro Eisden have gone 25W 15D 12L in their last 52 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Club Brugge II at home or Patro Eisden away?
Patro Eisden's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Club Brugge II at home: 1.32 PPG; Patro Eisden away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Club Brugge II or Patro Eisden been keeping clean sheets recently?
Club Brugge II have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Patro Eisden in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 7 H2H matches between Club Brugge II and Patro Eisden, the earliest from September 2023. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Patro Eisden won Patro Eisden 4-0 Club Brugge II on 16 Dec 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Club Brugge II have gone 0W 1D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Patro Eisden — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Club Brugge II
2
Draws
4
Patro Eisden
Recent Meetings
❓ Club Brugge II vs Patro Eisden H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Club Brugge II and Patro Eisden?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Club Brugge II have won 1, Patro Eisden have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Club Brugge II and Patro Eisden last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Patro Eisden 1-2 Club Brugge II.
Who has won more matches between Club Brugge II and Patro Eisden?
Patro Eisden have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Club Brugge II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Patro Eisden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Club Brugge II 40%, Patro Eisden 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Club Brugge II) and 44% (Patro Eisden).
On the defensive side: Patro Eisden in 36%; Club Brugge II have failed to score in 36% of games; Patro Eisden in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Club Brugge II home games / Patro Eisden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Club Brugge II vs Patro Eisden Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Club Brugge II and Patro Eisden matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Club Brugge II's recent matches and 52% of Patro Eisden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Club Brugge II and Patro Eisden matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Club Brugge II's recent games and 44% of Patro Eisden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Club Brugge II and Patro Eisden matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Club Brugge II's recent matches and 72% of Patro Eisden's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Patro Eisden edge out Club Brugge II 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Patro Eisden beat Club Brugge II 2-3 at Schiervelde Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Club Brugge II 0.98 xG and Patro Eisden 1.33 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Club Brugge II beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Patro Eisden outscored their 1.33 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Club Brugge II attack 0.86 / defence 0.97 against Patro Eisden attack 1.05 / defence 0.86, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Club Brugge II 28% | Draw 28% | Patro Eisden 45%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Club Brugge II 58%, Patro Eisden 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Club Brugge II's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Patro Eisden's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Patro Eisden arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.21. Form held, and they took the win. Club Brugge II (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.