Beerschot VA 4-2 RSC Anderlecht II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RSC Anderlecht II at 39%, yet the head-to-head data favours Beerschot VA — this Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Beerschot VA welcome RSC Anderlecht II to Olympisch Stadion in Challenger Pro League (matchday 29). Kick-off is Tuesday 10 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Beerschot VA — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Beerschot VA's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, RSC Anderlecht II stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
RSC Anderlecht II's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Beerschot VA) versus 1.50 (RSC Anderlecht II). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
Beerschot VA hold a clear advantage across the 7 H2H matches in our data, with 4 wins compared to 1 for RSC Anderlecht II and 2 draws.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Sep 2025, ended Beerschot VA 2–0 RSC Anderlecht II — a Beerschot VA win.
The head-to-head data gives Beerschot VA an edge — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Data
Beerschot VA trading profile (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
RSC Anderlecht II trading profile (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beerschot VA 54% versus RSC Anderlecht II 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beerschot VA 51% | RSC Anderlecht II 64%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Beerschot VA surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while RSC Anderlecht II have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 41% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that RSC Anderlecht II surrender HT leads in 43% of cases while Beerschot VA recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beerschot VA 1.22 xG and RSC Anderlecht II 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beerschot VA attack 0.859 / defence 0.842 | RSC Anderlecht II attack 1.166 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.360. Data: built from Beerschot VA's last 27 games and RSC Anderlecht II's last 55.
Result probabilities: Beerschot VA 34% | Draw 27% | RSC Anderlecht II 39%. Fair-value odds: Beerschot VA 2.95 | Draw 3.76 | RSC Anderlecht II 2.53. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates RSC Anderlecht II as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RSC Anderlecht II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Beerschot VA 60% (last 10 home games) | RSC Anderlecht II 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 29 | Venue: Olympisch Stadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 10 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beerschot VA 34% | Draw 27% | RSC Anderlecht II 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Beerschot VA 1.22 / RSC Anderlecht II 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Beerschot VA attack 0.859 / def 0.842 | RSC Anderlecht II attack 1.166 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: RSC Anderlecht II (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Beerschot VA xG
Expected Goals
1.34
RSC Anderlecht II xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II FAQs
What time does Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II kick off?
Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Tuesday 10 March 2026 at Olympisch Stadion.
What was the final score in Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Beerschot VA 4 - 2 RSC Anderlecht II.
Where is Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II being played?
The match is being played at Olympisch Stadion.
What competition is Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II part of?
Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 29) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our statistical model gives Beerschot VA a 34% chance of winning, RSC Anderlecht II a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making RSC Anderlecht II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Beerschot VA and RSC Anderlecht II will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Beerschot VA's attack at 0.86x the league average against RSC Anderlecht II's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, RSC Anderlecht II's attack versus Beerschot VA's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Beerschot VA's last 27 games and RSC Anderlecht II's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RSC Anderlecht II Win
34%
2.95
27%
3.76
39%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Beerschot VA xG
Total xG
2.56
1.34
RSC Anderlecht II xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.53
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
9%
11.21
12%
8.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.4 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.7 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Beerschot VA and RSC Anderlecht II expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Beerschot VA and 1.34 for RSC Anderlecht II, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, Beerschot VA have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 20W 14D 21L record — W-L-D-W-W across the most recent five.
RSC Anderlecht II's form line: 11W 18D 26L from 55 games, 0.93 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-D.
Put side by side, Beerschot VA are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against RSC Anderlecht II.
Venue Form
On home soil, Beerschot VA have posted 1.59 PPG from their last 27 home games (11W 10D 6L).
On the road, RSC Anderlecht II have gone 5W 8D 14L from their last 27 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beerschot VA come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Beerschot VA are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; RSC Anderlecht II are on 1.42 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RSC Anderlecht II in 64%.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beerschot VA
Blended
RSC Anderlecht II
Blended
Beerschot VA (Home) vs RSC Anderlecht II (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Beerschot VA
Blended
RSC Anderlecht II
Blended
❓ Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II Form FAQs
What form are Beerschot VA and RSC Anderlecht II in coming into this match?
Beerschot VA have gone 20W 14D 21L in their last 55 games (1.35 PPG), while RSC Anderlecht II have gone 11W 18D 26L in their last 55 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beerschot VA at home or RSC Anderlecht II away?
Beerschot VA's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beerschot VA at home: 1.59 PPG; RSC Anderlecht II away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from October 2022. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Beerschot VA have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
Beerschot VA's record when hosting RSC Anderlecht II specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Beerschot VA
2
Draws
1
RSC Anderlecht II
Recent Meetings
❓ Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and RSC Anderlecht II?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Beerschot VA have won 6, RSC Anderlecht II have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Beerschot VA and RSC Anderlecht II last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: RSC Anderlecht II 0-1 Beerschot VA.
Who has won more matches between Beerschot VA and RSC Anderlecht II?
Beerschot VA have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
RSC Anderlecht II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beerschot VA 56%, RSC Anderlecht II 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Beerschot VA) and 59% (RSC Anderlecht II).
On the defensive side: Beerschot VA keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; RSC Anderlecht II in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beerschot VA home games / RSC Anderlecht II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Beerschot VA and RSC Anderlecht II matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Beerschot VA's games and 59% of RSC Anderlecht II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Beerschot VA and RSC Anderlecht II matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Beerschot VA's recent games and 59% of RSC Anderlecht II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beerschot VA and RSC Anderlecht II matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Beerschot VA's recent matches and 74% of RSC Anderlecht II's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beerschot VA cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over RSC Anderlecht II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beerschot VA beat RSC Anderlecht II 4-2 at Olympisch Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beerschot VA 1.22 xG and RSC Anderlecht II 1.34 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Beerschot VA beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beerschot VA attack 0.86 / defence 0.84 against RSC Anderlecht II attack 1.17 / defence 1.06, drawn from 27/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beerschot VA 34% | Draw 27% | RSC Anderlecht II 39%, with RSC Anderlecht II to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Beerschot VA win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beerschot VA 51%, RSC Anderlecht II 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beerschot VA's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
RSC Anderlecht II's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beerschot VA arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. RSC Anderlecht II (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.