Beerschot VA 1-0 KRC Genk II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Beerschot VA (47%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Beerschot VA face KRC Genk II.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
KRC Genk II make the trip to Olympisch Stadion to face Beerschot VA in Challenger Pro League (matchday 28). The match kicks off on Friday 6 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Beerschot VA have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Beerschot VA at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
KRC Genk II (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 points per game. Last five: W D W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
KRC Genk II's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Beerschot VA. A 0.70 PPG lead over KRC Genk II (1.50 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Beerschot VA's last 10 home games and KRC Genk II's last 10 away games) — Beerschot VA have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, KRC Genk II in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Beerschot VA have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins, with KRC Genk II managing 0 and 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 23 Sep 2025, ended Beerschot VA 2–0 KRC Genk II — a Beerschot VA win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Beerschot VA and goals — 5 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 2.8 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Beerschot VA — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
KRC Genk II — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 58%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beerschot VA 56% versus KRC Genk II 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beerschot VA 52% | KRC Genk II 68%). Note also that KRC Genk II surrender HT leads in 58% of cases while Beerschot VA recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beerschot VA 1.70 xG and KRC Genk II 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beerschot VA attack 0.914 / defence 0.908 | KRC Genk II attack 1.000 / defence 1.418. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.415. KRC Genk II's defence rating of 1.418 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Beerschot VA's projected output up. Data: built from Beerschot VA's last 26 games and KRC Genk II's last 54.
Result probabilities: Beerschot VA 47% | Draw 24% | KRC Genk II 29%. Fair-value odds: Beerschot VA 2.12 | Draw 4.20 | KRC Genk II 3.45. Beerschot VA hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Beerschot VA as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beerschot VA if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Beerschot VA's last 10 home games and KRC Genk II's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Beerschot VA 60% (last 10 home games) | KRC Genk II 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 28 | Venue: Olympisch Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 6 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beerschot VA 47% | Draw 24% | KRC Genk II 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Beerschot VA 1.70 / KRC Genk II 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Beerschot VA attack 0.914 / def 0.908 | KRC Genk II attack 1.000 / def 1.418 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.415 • Poisson stance: Beerschot VA (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Beerschot VA xG
Expected Goals
1.28
KRC Genk II xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II FAQs
What time does Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II kick off?
Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 6 March 2026 at Olympisch Stadion.
What was the final score in Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II?
Beerschot VA 1 - 0 KRC Genk II.
Where is Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II being played?
The match is being played at Olympisch Stadion.
What competition is Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II part of?
Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 28) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II?
Our statistical model gives Beerschot VA a 47% chance of winning, KRC Genk II a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Beerschot VA the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Beerschot VA and KRC Genk II will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Beerschot VA's attack rating (0.91) and KRC Genk II's defence rating (1.42), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — KRC Genk II's attack (1.00x) against Beerschot VA's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from Beerschot VA's last 26 games and KRC Genk II's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beerschot VA Win
47%
2.12
24%
4.20
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Beerschot VA xG
Total xG
2.98
1.28
KRC Genk II xG
2.12
47%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
18%
5.47
Win to Nil
13%
7.66
5%
18.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.0 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Beerschot VA and KRC Genk II expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Beerschot VA and 1.28 for KRC Genk II, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Beerschot VA's recent record stands at 19W 14D 21L from 54 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-W in the last five.
KRC Genk II, meanwhile, have gone 9W 10D 35L across 54 games — 0.69 PPG, with W-D-W-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Beerschot VA by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over KRC Genk II heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Beerschot VA have managed 11W 10D 6L from their last 27 home games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
KRC Genk II's away record stands at 3W 6D 18L across their last 27 away games, a 0.56 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beerschot VA come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Beerschot VA are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; KRC Genk II are on 1.17 scored and 2.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KRC Genk II in 61%.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beerschot VA
Blended
KRC Genk II
Blended
Beerschot VA (Home) vs KRC Genk II (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Beerschot VA
Blended
KRC Genk II
Blended
❓ Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II Form FAQs
What form are Beerschot VA and KRC Genk II in coming into this match?
Beerschot VA have gone 19W 14D 21L in their last 54 games (1.31 PPG), while KRC Genk II have gone 9W 10D 35L in their last 54 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beerschot VA at home or KRC Genk II away?
Beerschot VA's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beerschot VA at home: 1.59 PPG; KRC Genk II away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Beerschot VA and KRC Genk II, the earliest from October 2022. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was on 6 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Beerschot VA have taken the most recent 6 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beerschot VA have gone 3W 0D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against KRC Genk II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Beerschot VA
0
Draws
0
KRC Genk II
Recent Meetings
❓ Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and KRC Genk II?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Beerschot VA have won 6, KRC Genk II have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Beerschot VA and KRC Genk II last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 March 2026: Beerschot VA 1-0 KRC Genk II.
Who has won more matches between Beerschot VA and KRC Genk II?
Beerschot VA have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beerschot VA 59%, KRC Genk II 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Beerschot VA) and 70% (KRC Genk II). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: KRC Genk II in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beerschot VA home games / KRC Genk II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Beerschot VA and KRC Genk II matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Beerschot VA's games and 63% of KRC Genk II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Beerschot VA and KRC Genk II matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Beerschot VA's matches and 70% of KRC Genk II's.
Do Beerschot VA and KRC Genk II matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Beerschot VA's recent matches and 82% of KRC Genk II's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Beerschot VA edge out KRC Genk II 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beerschot VA beat KRC Genk II 1-0 at Olympisch Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beerschot VA 1.70 xG and KRC Genk II 1.28 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. KRC Genk II landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beerschot VA attack 0.91 / defence 0.91 against KRC Genk II attack 1.00 / defence 1.42, drawn from 26/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beerschot VA 47% | Draw 24% | KRC Genk II 29%, with Beerschot VA to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beerschot VA 52%, KRC Genk II 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beerschot VA's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
KRC Genk II's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Beerschot VA arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.69. That form edge translated into the three points. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.