AS Eupen 1-1 Francs Borains – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Eupen at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as AS Eupen face Francs Borains.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AS Eupen and Francs Borains meet at Kehrwegstadion in Challenger Pro League (matchday 26). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Current Form
AS Eupen's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
AS Eupen's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Francs Borains have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Francs Borains's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for AS Eupen against 1.00 for Francs Borains. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for AS Eupen, 1 for Francs Borains and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 13 Sep 2025, ended AS Eupen 3–0 Francs Borains — a AS Eupen win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
AS Eupen — key trading statistics (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Francs Borains — key trading statistics (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Eupen 55% versus Francs Borains 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Eupen 59% | Francs Borains 53%). Note also that Francs Borains surrender HT leads in 30% of cases while AS Eupen recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Eupen 1.46 xG and Francs Borains 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Eupen attack 0.972 / defence 0.907 | Francs Borains attack 0.890 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.297. Data: built from AS Eupen's last 51 games and Francs Borains's last 52.
Result probabilities: AS Eupen 47% | Draw 26% | Francs Borains 27%. Fair-value odds: AS Eupen 2.14 | Draw 3.81 | Francs Borains 3.70. AS Eupen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AS Eupen are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Eupen if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: AS Eupen 70% (last 10 home games) | Francs Borains 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Eupen vs Francs Borains | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 26 | Venue: Kehrwegstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 21 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Eupen 47% | Draw 26% | Francs Borains 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG AS Eupen 1.46 / Francs Borains 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: AS Eupen attack 0.972 / def 0.907 | Francs Borains attack 0.890 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: AS Eupen (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
AS Eupen xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Francs Borains xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AS Eupen vs Francs Borains FAQs
What time does AS Eupen vs Francs Borains kick off?
AS Eupen vs Francs Borains kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Kehrwegstadion.
What was the final score in AS Eupen vs Francs Borains?
AS Eupen 1 - 1 Francs Borains.
Where is AS Eupen vs Francs Borains being played?
The match is being played at Kehrwegstadion.
What competition is AS Eupen vs Francs Borains part of?
AS Eupen vs Francs Borains is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 26) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win AS Eupen vs Francs Borains?
Our statistical model gives AS Eupen a 47% chance of winning, Francs Borains a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making AS Eupen the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Eupen vs Francs Borains?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both AS Eupen and Francs Borains will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will AS Eupen vs Francs Borains have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from AS Eupen's attack rating (0.97) and Francs Borains's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Francs Borains's attack (0.89x) against AS Eupen's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from AS Eupen's last 51 games and Francs Borains's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Eupen Win
47%
2.14
26%
3.81
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
AS Eupen xG
Total xG
2.51
1.05
Francs Borains xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
16%
6.10
6%
15.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.4 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AS Eupen vs Francs Borains Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Eupen vs Francs Borains?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are AS Eupen and Francs Borains expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for AS Eupen and 1.05 for Francs Borains, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Eupen vs Francs Borains?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 51 outings, AS Eupen have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 17W 13D 21L record — L-L-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Francs Borains's form line: 15W 10D 26L from 51 games, 1.08 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for AS Eupen against 1.08 for Francs Borains. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, AS Eupen have posted 1.44 PPG from their last 25 home games (10W 6D 9L).
On the road, Francs Borains have gone 7W 4D 14L from their last 25 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Eupen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AS Eupen are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Francs Borains are on 1.06 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Eupen
Blended
Francs Borains
Blended
AS Eupen (Home) vs Francs Borains (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AS Eupen
Blended
Francs Borains
Blended
❓ AS Eupen vs Francs Borains Form FAQs
What form are AS Eupen and Francs Borains in coming into this match?
AS Eupen have gone 17W 13D 21L in their last 51 games (1.25 PPG), while Francs Borains have gone 15W 10D 26L in their last 51 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Eupen at home or Francs Borains away?
AS Eupen's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Eupen at home: 1.44 PPG; Francs Borains away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between AS Eupen and Francs Borains, the earliest from December 2024. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was on 21 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Eupen won Francs Borains 0-3 AS Eupen on 13 Sep 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Eupen have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Francs Borains — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
AS Eupen
1
Draws
1
Francs Borains
Recent Meetings
❓ AS Eupen vs Francs Borains H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and Francs Borains?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, AS Eupen have won 2, Francs Borains have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did AS Eupen and Francs Borains last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 February 2026: AS Eupen 1-1 Francs Borains.
Who has won more matches between AS Eupen and Francs Borains?
AS Eupen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Francs Borains are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Eupen 64%, Francs Borains 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for AS Eupen and 60% for Francs Borains. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Francs Borains in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Eupen home games / Francs Borains away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AS Eupen vs Francs Borains Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AS Eupen and Francs Borains matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of AS Eupen's games and 52% of Francs Borains's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are AS Eupen and Francs Borains matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of AS Eupen's matches and 60% of Francs Borains's.
Do AS Eupen and Francs Borains matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of AS Eupen's recent matches and 72% of Francs Borains's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AS Eupen and Francs Borains share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Kehrwegstadion, Regular Season - 26, as AS Eupen and Francs Borains drew 1-1 in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Eupen 1.46 xG and Francs Borains 1.05 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Eupen attack 0.97 / defence 0.91 against Francs Borains attack 0.89 / defence 1.13, drawn from 51/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Eupen 47% | Draw 26% | Francs Borains 27%, with AS Eupen to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Eupen 59%, Francs Borains 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Eupen's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Francs Borains's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AS Eupen 1.25 PPG, Francs Borains 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Francs Borains (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.