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Poisson model rates Sturm Graz at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Sturm Graz make the trip to Allianz Stadion to face Rapid Vienna in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Sunday 2 November 2025 at 16:00 UTC.

Form

Rapid Vienna (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Rapid Vienna at Allianz Stadion this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Sturm Graz have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 7W 0D 3L. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Sturm Graz have posted 8W 0D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 2.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Rapid Vienna, 3 for Sturm Graz and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2025, ended 2–1 with Rapid Vienna winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Rapid Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Sturm Graz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rapid Vienna 57% versus Sturm Graz 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rapid Vienna 55% | Sturm Graz 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 1.06 xG and Sturm Graz 2.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 0.976 / defence 1.091 | Sturm Graz attack 1.485 / defence 0.823. League average goals — home 1.315 / away 1.376. Sturm Graz have an above-average attack strength of 1.485 — the away xG of 2.23 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 33 Rapid Vienna games / 32 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 17% | Draw 19% | Sturm Graz 64%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 5.88 | Draw 5.26 | Sturm Graz 1.56. The model has a clear lean to Sturm Graz (64%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Sturm Graz as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.29 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. This conflicts with form data: Rapid Vienna 30% | Sturm Graz 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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