WSG Wattens 1-1 FC BW Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates WSG Wattens at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as WSG Wattens face FC BW Linz.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC BW Linz make the trip to Tivoli Stadion Tirol to face WSG Wattens in Bundesliga (Relegation Group - 31). The match kicks off on Saturday 9 May 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Form
WSG Wattens (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, WSG Wattens have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
FC BW Linz's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
FC BW Linz's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across their last 10 road games (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for WSG Wattens against 1.40 for FC BW Linz. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 9 H2H matches in our data: 4 wins for WSG Wattens, 4 for FC BW Linz and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 11 Apr 2026, ended WSG Wattens 0–5 FC BW Linz — a FC BW Linz win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
WSG Wattens half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
FC BW Linz half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — WSG Wattens 55% versus FC BW Linz 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 53% | FC BW Linz 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.37 xG and FC BW Linz 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.992 / defence 0.943 | FC BW Linz attack 0.814 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: built from WSG Wattens's last 44 games and FC BW Linz's last 44.
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 47% | Draw 29% | FC BW Linz 23%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 2.11 | Draw 3.44 | FC BW Linz 4.26. WSG Wattens hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, WSG Wattens are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on WSG Wattens if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 9 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: WSG Wattens 50% (last 10 home games) | FC BW Linz 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Group - 31 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 47% | Draw 29% | FC BW Linz 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG WSG Wattens 1.37 / FC BW Linz 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 0.992 / def 0.943 | FC BW Linz attack 0.814 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: WSG Wattens (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
0.88
FC BW Linz xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz FAQs
What time does WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz kick off?
WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz?
WSG Wattens 1 - 1 FC BW Linz.
Where is WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz part of?
WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz is a Bundesliga fixture (Relegation Group - 31) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 47% chance of winning, FC BW Linz a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making WSG Wattens the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both WSG Wattens and FC BW Linz will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates WSG Wattens's attack at 0.99x the league average against FC BW Linz's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC BW Linz's attack (0.81x) against WSG Wattens's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from WSG Wattens's last 44 games and FC BW Linz's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
WSG Wattens Win
47%
2.11
29%
3.44
23%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
2.25
0.88
FC BW Linz xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
4.26
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
20%
5.09
6%
16.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 12.7 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.7 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and FC BW Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 0.88 for FC BW Linz, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 62 outings, WSG Wattens have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 17W 18D 27L record — L-D-D-W-L across the most recent five.
FC BW Linz's form line: 19W 9D 34L from 62 games, 1.06 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for WSG Wattens against 1.06 for FC BW Linz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, WSG Wattens have posted 1.32 PPG from their last 31 home games (10W 11D 10L).
On the road, FC BW Linz have gone 4W 8D 19L from their last 31 away games — 0.65 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.06 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC BW Linz's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, WSG Wattens come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
WSG Wattens are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; FC BW Linz are on 1.18 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Current Season
FC BW Linz
Current Season
WSG Wattens (Home) vs FC BW Linz (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
WSG Wattens
Current Season
FC BW Linz
Current Season
❓ WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz Form FAQs
What form are WSG Wattens and FC BW Linz in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 17W 18D 27L in their last 62 games (1.11 PPG), while FC BW Linz have gone 19W 9D 34L in their last 62 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or FC BW Linz away?
WSG Wattens's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 1.32 PPG; FC BW Linz away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between WSG Wattens and FC BW Linz, the earliest from September 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 9 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC BW Linz won FC BW Linz 5-0 WSG Wattens on 11 Apr 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, WSG Wattens have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC BW Linz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
WSG Wattens
2
Draws
4
FC BW Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and FC BW Linz?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, WSG Wattens have won 4, FC BW Linz have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and FC BW Linz last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 May 2026: WSG Wattens 1-1 FC BW Linz.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — WSG Wattens 55%, FC BW Linz 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (WSG Wattens) and 48% (FC BW Linz).
On the defensive side: WSG Wattens keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; WSG Wattens have failed to score in 26% of games; FC BW Linz in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / FC BW Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in WSG Wattens and FC BW Linz matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of WSG Wattens's recent matches and 52% of FC BW Linz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are WSG Wattens and FC BW Linz matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of WSG Wattens's recent games and 48% of FC BW Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do WSG Wattens and FC BW Linz matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of WSG Wattens's recent matches and 71% of FC BW Linz's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
WSG Wattens and FC BW Linz share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
WSG Wattens and FC BW Linz finished level at 1-1 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Relegation Group - 31, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.37 xG and FC BW Linz 0.88 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.99 / defence 0.94 against FC BW Linz attack 0.81 / defence 1.02, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 47% | Draw 29% | FC BW Linz 23%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 53%, FC BW Linz 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
FC BW Linz's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — WSG Wattens 1.11 PPG, FC BW Linz 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.