SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 18 as SCR Altach welcome Austria Lustenau to Cashpoint-Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 January 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SCR Altach stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SCR Altach's home record at Cashpoint-Arena: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — SCR Altach are significantly better at Cashpoint-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Austria Lustenau — All Games: 2W 2D 5L from 9 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.89 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.22 per game is modest, conceding 2.11 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.11 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Austria Lustenau, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Lustenau's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 3L across 4 road games this term (0.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.25 is notably below their overall 0.89 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (SCR Altach) versus 0.89 (Austria Lustenau). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SCR Altach register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Austria Lustenau in 100% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, SCR Altach have won 3, Austria Lustenau 4, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2026, ended 0–2 with Austria Lustenau winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
SCR Altach in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Austria Lustenau in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 33% versus Austria Lustenau 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SCR Altach 67% | Austria Lustenau 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 2.31 xG and Austria Lustenau 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.986 / defence 0.977 | Austria Lustenau attack 1.006 / defence 1.295. League average goals — home 1.806 / away 1.304. Austria Lustenau bring a strong defensive rating of 1.295 — this is suppressing SCR Altach's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 SCR Altach games / 9 Austria Lustenau games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 58% | Draw 24% | Austria Lustenau 18%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Austria Lustenau 5.56. The model has a clear lean to SCR Altach (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.31 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SCR Altach as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.59 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SCR Altach 60% | Austria Lustenau 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Cashpoint-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jan 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 58% | Draw 24% | Austria Lustenau 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 67% | xG SCR Altach 2.31 / Austria Lustenau 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.986 / def 0.977 | Austria Lustenau attack 1.006 / def 1.295 | league avg home 1.806 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: SCR Altach (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Austria Lustenau xG
67%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau kick off?
SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 30 January 2027 at Cashpoint-Arena.
Where is SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau being played?
The match is being played at Cashpoint-Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau part of?
SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 58% chance of winning, Austria Lustenau a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SCR Altach the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau?
Record (9 meetings): SCR Altach 3W | Draws 2 | Austria Lustenau 4W.
What form are SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Austria Lustenau (all comps): 2W-2D-5L in 9 | 0.89 PPG | GF 1.22 / GA 2.11 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SCR Altach's attack at 0.99x the league average against Austria Lustenau's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 2.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Lustenau's attack versus SCR Altach's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.2%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SCR Altach Win
58%
1.72
24%
4.25
18%
5.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
2 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
3.59
1.28
Austria Lustenau xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
5.49
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.04
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
10%
10.03
Win to Nil
16%
6.19
2%
55.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 8.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for SCR Altach and 1.28 for Austria Lustenau, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SCR Altach come into this having played 9 games, going 2W 0D 7L for 0.67 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Austria Lustenau sit at 0.89 PPG from 9 outings (2W 2D 5L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Austria Lustenau is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SCR Altach on 0.67 PPG, Austria Lustenau on 0.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
SCR Altach's home form reads 2W 0D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.67 PPG overall — SCR Altach are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Austria Lustenau have taken 0.25 points per game from 4 outings (0W 1D 3L). That's a step down from their 0.89 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Austria Lustenau's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SCR Altach come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SCR Altach are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Austria Lustenau are on 1.22 scored and 2.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Lustenau in 67%.
Last 9 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Blended
Austria Lustenau
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 2W 0D 7L in their last 9 games (0.67 PPG), while Austria Lustenau have gone 2W 2D 5L in their last 9 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or Austria Lustenau away?
SCR Altach's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 1.50 PPG; Austria Lustenau away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 19 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Nov 2022, when Austria Lustenau won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SCR Altach's record when hosting Austria Lustenau specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
SCR Altach
2
Draws
4
Austria Lustenau
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau?
From 9 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 3, Austria Lustenau have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2026, when Austria Lustenau 2-0 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau?
Austria Lustenau have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Austria Lustenau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SCR Altach at 75%, Austria Lustenau at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for SCR Altach and 75% for Austria Lustenau. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / Austria Lustenau away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play Austria Lustenau?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of SCR Altach's games and 100% of Austria Lustenau's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of SCR Altach's matches and 75% of Austria Lustenau's.
Do SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Austria Lustenau in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.