Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lask Linz at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lask Linz host Sturm Graz at Raiffeisen Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 January 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Lask Linz have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Raiffeisen Arena, Lask Linz have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sturm Graz — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sturm Graz's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lask Linz at 2.20 PPG versus Sturm Graz's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lask Linz register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sturm Graz in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Sturm Graz have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 10 encounters against Lask Linz's 2 victories.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2026, ended 1–2 with Sturm Graz winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sturm Graz have won 5 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Lask Linz in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Sturm Graz in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lask Linz 56% versus Sturm Graz 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 63% | Sturm Graz 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.59 xG and Sturm Graz 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 1.051 / defence 0.925 | Sturm Graz attack 0.985 / defence 0.837. League average goals — home 1.806 / away 1.304. Data: 31 Lask Linz games / 31 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 44% | Draw 31% | Sturm Graz 25%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Sturm Graz 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lask Linz at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lask Linz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Lask Linz 60% | Sturm Graz 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jan 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 44% | Draw 31% | Sturm Graz 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Lask Linz 1.59 / Sturm Graz 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 1.051 / def 0.925 | Sturm Graz attack 0.985 / def 0.837 | league avg home 1.806 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Sturm Graz xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz kick off?
Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 30 January 2027 at Raiffeisen Arena.
Where is Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz part of?
Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 44% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Lask Linz and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Sturm Graz?
Record (10 meetings): Lask Linz 2W | Draws 3 | Sturm Graz 5W.
What form are Lask Linz and Sturm Graz in?
Lask Linz (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Sturm Graz (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lask Linz's attack at 1.05x the league average against Sturm Graz's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sturm Graz's attack versus Lask Linz's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
44%
2.29
31%
3.23
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
2.78
1.19
Sturm Graz xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
20%
4.90
Win to Nil
13%
7.53
5%
19.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.7 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Lask Linz and 1.19 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, Lask Linz have picked up 1.88 PPG on a 23W 8D 10L record — W-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sturm Graz's form line: 21W 10D 10L from 41 games, 1.78 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-W. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lask Linz on 1.88 PPG, Sturm Graz on 1.78. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lask Linz have posted 2.10 PPG from 20 outings (13W 3D 4L).
On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 11W 4D 5L from 20 away games — 1.85 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Lask Linz are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.63 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Sturm Graz in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Blended
Sturm Graz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lask Linz and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 23W 8D 10L in their last 41 games (1.88 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 21W 10D 10L in their last 41 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or Sturm Graz away?
Lask Linz's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 2.10 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 1.85 PPG.
Have Lask Linz or Sturm Graz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lask Linz have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Sturm Graz in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Lask Linz's record when hosting Sturm Graz specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Lask Linz
3
Draws
5
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Sturm Graz?
From 10 meetings on record, Lask Linz have won 2, Sturm Graz have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when Sturm Graz 2-1 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lask Linz 50%, Sturm Graz 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Lask Linz) and 50% (Sturm Graz). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lask Linz keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Sturm Graz in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lask Linz play Sturm Graz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Lask Linz's recent matches and 55% of Sturm Graz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Lask Linz's matches and 50% of Sturm Graz's.
Do Lask Linz and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
Lask Linz have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.