Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Lask Linz at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lask Linz host Sturm Graz at Raiffeisen Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 January 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Lask Linz have gone 9W 1D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.80 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lask Linz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Raiffeisen Arena, Lask Linz have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.30 lags behind their overall 2.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Raiffeisen Arena this season.
Sturm Graz — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sturm Graz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sturm Graz's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Lask Linz have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.80 vs 1.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
Sturm Graz have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 10 encounters against Lask Linz's 2 victories.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sturm Graz have won 5 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Lask Linz in-play tendencies (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Sturm Graz in-play tendencies (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lask Linz 57% versus Sturm Graz 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 62% | Sturm Graz 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.96 xG and Sturm Graz 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 1.349 / defence 0.833 | Sturm Graz attack 1.040 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.177. Lask Linz carry an above-average attack strength of 1.349 — their λ of 1.96 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 27 Lask Linz games / 27 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 57% | Draw 26% | Sturm Graz 17%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 1.75 | Draw 3.85 | Sturm Graz 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Lask Linz (57%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Sturm Graz lead the H2H ledger, but Lask Linz carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lask Linz at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Lask Linz 70% | Sturm Graz 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jan 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 57% | Draw 26% | Sturm Graz 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Lask Linz 1.96 / Sturm Graz 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 1.349 / def 0.833 | Sturm Graz attack 1.040 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Sturm Graz xG
57%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz kick off?
Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 30 January 2027 at Raiffeisen Arena.
Where is Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz part of?
Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 57% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 17% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Lask Linz and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Sturm Graz?
Record (10 meetings): Lask Linz 2W | Draws 3 | Sturm Graz 5W.
What form are Lask Linz and Sturm Graz in?
Lask Linz (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Sturm Graz (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lask Linz's attack at 1.35x the league average against Sturm Graz's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sturm Graz's attack versus Lask Linz's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
57%
1.75
26%
3.84
17%
5.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
2.98
1.02
Sturm Graz xG
1.75
57%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
5.91
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
14%
7.12
Win to Nil
21%
4.86
2%
42.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.9 | 10.1 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Lask Linz and 1.02 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 37 outings, Lask Linz have picked up 1.97 PPG on a 22W 7D 8L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Lask Linz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sturm Graz's form line: 18W 10D 9L from 37 games, 1.73 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Sturm Graz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lask Linz on 1.97 PPG, Sturm Graz on 1.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lask Linz have posted 2.21 PPG from 19 outings (13W 3D 3L).
On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 11W 4D 4L from 19 away games — 1.95 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Lask Linz are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.54 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Sturm Graz in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Early Season
Sturm Graz
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lask Linz and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 22W 7D 8L in their last 37 games (1.97 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 18W 10D 9L in their last 37 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or Sturm Graz away?
Lask Linz's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 2.21 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 1.95 PPG.
Have Lask Linz or Sturm Graz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lask Linz have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Sturm Graz in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Lask Linz's record when hosting Sturm Graz specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Lask Linz
3
Draws
5
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Sturm Graz?
From 10 meetings on record, Lask Linz have won 2, Sturm Graz have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when Sturm Graz 1-1 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lask Linz 53%, Sturm Graz 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Lask Linz) and 47% (Sturm Graz). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lask Linz keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Sturm Graz in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lask Linz play Sturm Graz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Lask Linz's games and 58% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Lask Linz's matches and 47% of Sturm Graz's.
Do Lask Linz and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
Lask Linz have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.