Wolfsberger AC 1-1 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Wolfsberger AC at 48%, yet in-form SCR Altach provide a compelling counter-argument — this Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

Wolfsberger AC welcome SCR Altach to Lavanttal-Arena in Bundesliga (Relegation Group - 24). Kick-off is Saturday 21 March 2026 at 16:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Wolfsberger AC — last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Wolfsberger AC at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Wolfsberger AC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, SCR Altach have recorded 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

SCR Altach away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour SCR Altach — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Wolfsberger AC, 3 for SCR Altach and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Nov 2025, ended Wolfsberger AC 1–3 SCR Altach — a SCR Altach win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Wolfsberger AC in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).

SCR Altach in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wolfsberger AC 64% versus SCR Altach 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 62% | SCR Altach 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.49 xG and SCR Altach 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.093 / defence 1.126 | SCR Altach attack 0.771 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. SCR Altach's attack rating of 0.771 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.00. Data: built from Wolfsberger AC's last 44 games and SCR Altach's last 44.

Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 48% | Draw 28% | SCR Altach 25%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 2.09 | Draw 3.62 | SCR Altach 4.06. Wolfsberger AC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Wolfsberger AC are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SCR Altach (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Wolfsberger AC 70% (last 10 home games) | SCR Altach 20% (last 10 away games).

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