🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates WSG Wattens at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

WSG Wattens and Grazer AK meet at Tivoli Stadion Tirol in Bundesliga, Relegation Group - 24. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 March 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

WSG Wattens have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.

WSG Wattens's home record at Tivoli Stadion Tirol: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Grazer AK's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Grazer AK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Grazer AK's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for WSG Wattens, 1.40 for Grazer AK — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: WSG Wattens 1W, Grazer AK 1W, 4D.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 6 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2026, ended 2–0 with WSG Wattens winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading

WSG Wattens half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Grazer AK half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — WSG Wattens 56% versus Grazer AK 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 51% | Grazer AK 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.51 xG and Grazer AK 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.983 / defence 0.927 | Grazer AK attack 0.809 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: 44 WSG Wattens games / 44 Grazer AK games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 52% | Draw 28% | Grazer AK 21%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Grazer AK 4.76. WSG Wattens hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is WSG Wattens at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on WSG Wattens if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: WSG Wattens 60% | Grazer AK 50%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights