Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Wolfsberger AC at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Grazer AK travel to Lavanttal-Arena to take on Wolfsberger AC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 February 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Wolfsberger AC have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wolfsberger AC's home record at Lavanttal-Arena: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lavanttal-Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Wolfsberger AC are significantly better at Lavanttal-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Grazer AK — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Grazer AK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grazer AK away from home this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Grazer AK are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
Wolfsberger AC hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 7 previous encounters compared to 1 for Grazer AK, with 2 draws in between.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Wolfsberger AC and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Wolfsberger AC in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Grazer AK in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wolfsberger AC 56% versus Grazer AK 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 61% | Grazer AK 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 2.04 xG and Grazer AK 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 0.754 / defence 1.151 | Grazer AK attack 0.827 / defence 1.493. League average goals — home 1.806 / away 1.304. Wolfsberger AC's attack strength of 0.754 is below the league average — the 2.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Grazer AK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.493 — this is suppressing Wolfsberger AC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Wolfsberger AC games / 31 Grazer AK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 53% | Draw 26% | Grazer AK 20%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Grazer AK 5.00. Wolfsberger AC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
Wolfsberger AC dominate the H2H record, yet Grazer AK are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Wolfsberger AC are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Grazer AK (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.28 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Wolfsberger AC 30% | Grazer AK 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Lavanttal-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 53% | Draw 26% | Grazer AK 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 64% | xG Wolfsberger AC 2.04 / Grazer AK 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 0.754 / def 1.151 | Grazer AK attack 0.827 / def 1.493 | league avg home 1.806 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Grazer AK xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Lavanttal-Arena.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal-Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 53% chance of winning, Grazer AK a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and Grazer AK will score (BTTS).
Will Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Grazer AK?
Record (7 meetings): Wolfsberger AC 4W | Draws 2 | Grazer AK 1W.
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Grazer AK in?
Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Grazer AK (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Wolfsberger AC's attack at 0.75x the league average against Grazer AK's defence at 1.49x — combine the two and it projects 2.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Grazer AK's attack versus Wolfsberger AC's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
53%
1.88
26%
3.80
20%
4.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
3.28
1.24
Grazer AK xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
4.88
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
13%
7.65
Win to Nil
15%
6.50
3%
37.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and Grazer AK expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 1.24 for Grazer AK, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wolfsberger AC come into this having played 41 games, going 12W 10D 19L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Grazer AK sit at 1.12 PPG from 41 outings (11W 13D 17L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Grazer AK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wolfsberger AC on 1.12 PPG, Grazer AK on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Wolfsberger AC's home form reads 7W 7D 6L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Grazer AK have taken 0.75 points per game from 20 outings (4W 3D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wolfsberger AC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Grazer AK are on 1.20 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
Grazer AK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Grazer AK in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 12W 10D 19L in their last 41 games (1.12 PPG), while Grazer AK have gone 11W 13D 17L in their last 41 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or Grazer AK away?
Wolfsberger AC's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 1.40 PPG; Grazer AK away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Wolfsberger AC's record when hosting Grazer AK specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Wolfsberger AC
2
Draws
1
Grazer AK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Grazer AK?
From 7 meetings on record, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, Grazer AK have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and Grazer AK last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Grazer AK 0-0 Wolfsberger AC.
Who has won more matches between Wolfsberger AC and Grazer AK?
Wolfsberger AC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Grazer AK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolfsberger AC 50%, Grazer AK 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Wolfsberger AC) and 60% (Grazer AK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wolfsberger AC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Grazer AK in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / Grazer AK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolfsberger AC play Grazer AK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Wolfsberger AC's recent matches and 45% of Grazer AK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Wolfsberger AC's matches and 60% of Grazer AK's.
Do Wolfsberger AC and Grazer AK tend to score early?
Wolfsberger AC have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Grazer AK in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.