Wolfsberger AC 2-2 Grazer AK – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Wolfsberger AC at 49% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Grazer AK travel to Lavanttal-Arena to take on Wolfsberger AC in Bundesliga (matchday 18). The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 February 2026 at 13:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Wolfsberger AC have gone 4W 1D 5L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Wolfsberger AC's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Grazer AK — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Grazer AK away from home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Wolfsberger AC 1.30 PPG, Grazer AK 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Wolfsberger AC's games and 60% of Grazer AK's (from Wolfsberger AC's last 10 home games and Grazer AK's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

Wolfsberger AC hold a clear advantage across the 3 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for Grazer AK and 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 4 Oct 2025, ended Wolfsberger AC 3–1 Grazer AK — a Wolfsberger AC win.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Wolfsberger AC and goals — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches and an average of 5.7 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.

In-Play Profile

Wolfsberger AC in-play tendencies (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).

Grazer AK in-play tendencies (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wolfsberger AC 63% and Grazer AK 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 61% | Grazer AK 57%). Note also that Grazer AK surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while Wolfsberger AC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.51 xG and Grazer AK 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 0.994 / defence 0.927 | Grazer AK attack 0.833 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.313. Data: built from Wolfsberger AC's last 39 games and Grazer AK's last 39.

Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 49% | Draw 26% | Grazer AK 25%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 2.05 | Draw 3.86 | Grazer AK 3.95. Wolfsberger AC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Wolfsberger AC are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Wolfsberger AC 3 wins from 3 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 5.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Wolfsberger AC 60% (last 10 home games) | Grazer AK 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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