Austria Vienna 3-1 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Vienna at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees TSV Hartberg travel to Generali Arena to take on Austria Vienna. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 February 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Austria Vienna have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Generali Arena, Austria Vienna have gone 3W 6D 1L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Generali Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
TSV Hartberg — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Austria Vienna) versus 1.80 (TSV Hartberg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Austria Vienna, 1 for TSV Hartberg and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2023, ended 1–2 with TSV Hartberg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Austria Vienna trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
TSV Hartberg trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Vienna 55% versus TSV Hartberg 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 63% | TSV Hartberg 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.11 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 0.878 / defence 0.742 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.170 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 1.188. Austria Vienna's defence rating of 0.742 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 39 Austria Vienna games / 39 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 37% | Draw 30% | TSV Hartberg 33%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | TSV Hartberg 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Austria Vienna as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Austria Vienna 20% | TSV Hartberg 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Feb 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 37% | Draw 30% | TSV Hartberg 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Austria Vienna 1.11 / TSV Hartberg 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 0.878 / def 0.742 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.170 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.280 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.03
TSV Hartberg xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Generali Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Austria Vienna 3 - 1 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 37% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg?
Record (1 meetings): Austria Vienna 0W | Draws 0 | TSV Hartberg 1W.
What form are Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg in?
Austria Vienna (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Austria Vienna's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against TSV Hartberg's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Austria Vienna's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
37%
2.68
30%
3.39
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
2.15
1.03
TSV Hartberg xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
13%
7.52
11%
9.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 12.1 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.4 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 1.03 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Austria Vienna's recent record stands at 17W 16D 16L from 49 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
TSV Hartberg, meanwhile, have gone 17W 11D 21L across 49 games — 1.27 PPG, with W-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Austria Vienna on 1.37 PPG, TSV Hartberg on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Austria Vienna have managed 10W 8D 6L from 24 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
TSV Hartberg's away record stands at 7W 6D 11L across 24 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.39 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 17W 16D 16L in their last 49 games (1.37 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 17W 11D 21L in their last 49 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Austria Vienna's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 1.58 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Austria Vienna or TSV Hartberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Austria Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, TSV Hartberg in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Austria Vienna have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Austria Vienna's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Austria Vienna
1
Draws
3
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Vienna have won 6, TSV Hartberg have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Austria Vienna 1-0 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Vienna 46%, TSV Hartberg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Austria Vienna and 58% for TSV Hartberg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Austria Vienna keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; TSV Hartberg in 33%; Austria Vienna have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Vienna play TSV Hartberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Austria Vienna's recent matches and 50% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Austria Vienna's matches and 58% of TSV Hartberg's.
Do Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Austria Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Austria Vienna cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over TSV Hartberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna beat TSV Hartberg 3-1 at Generali Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.11 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.03 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Austria Vienna beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 0.88 / defence 0.74 against TSV Hartberg attack 1.17 / defence 0.99, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 37% | Draw 30% | TSV Hartberg 33%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 63%, TSV Hartberg 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Vienna's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Vienna 1.37 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.