TSV Hartberg 2-4 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 38%, yet in-form Sturm Graz provide a compelling counter-argument — this TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
TSV Hartberg host Sturm Graz at Stadion Hartberg in Bundesliga (Championship Group - 31). Kick-off is Sunday 10 May 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Guide
TSV Hartberg — last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, TSV Hartberg have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Sturm Graz have recorded 3W 7D 0L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D D D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sturm Graz's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Sturm Graz's 1.60 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of TSV Hartberg's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of TSV Hartberg's games and 70% of Sturm Graz's (from TSV Hartberg's last 10 home games and Sturm Graz's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Despite the home advantage, Sturm Graz have the better record in our head-to-head data — 5 wins from 8 H2H matches against 0 for TSV Hartberg.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Apr 2026, ended TSV Hartberg 0–0 Sturm Graz — a draw.
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 8 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Patterns
TSV Hartberg in-play and half-time data (last 62 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Sturm Graz in-play and half-time data (last 62 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 52% versus Sturm Graz 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 44% | Sturm Graz 53%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: TSV Hartberg surrender their half-time lead 37% of the time, while Sturm Graz have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Sturm Graz surrender HT leads in 26% of cases while TSV Hartberg recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.23 xG and Sturm Graz 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.902 / defence 0.890 | Sturm Graz attack 1.098 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: built from TSV Hartberg's last 44 games and Sturm Graz's last 44.
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 38% | Draw 29% | Sturm Graz 33%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.64 | Draw 3.40 | Sturm Graz 3.06. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, TSV Hartberg are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sturm Graz (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — mixed conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.9 goals per game across 8 H2H matches — though recent form (TSV Hartberg's last 10 home games and Sturm Graz's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: TSV Hartberg 60% (last 10 home games) | Sturm Graz 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Group - 31 | Venue: Stadion Hartberg • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 38% | Draw 29% | Sturm Graz 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG TSV Hartberg 1.23 / Sturm Graz 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.902 / def 0.890 | Sturm Graz attack 1.098 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Sturm Graz xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz FAQs
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Stadion Hartberg.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?
TSV Hartberg 2 - 4 Sturm Graz.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Hartberg.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz is a Bundesliga fixture (Championship Group - 31) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 38% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
TSV Hartberg's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Sturm Graz's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Sturm Graz's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from TSV Hartberg's last 44 games and Sturm Graz's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
38%
2.64
29%
3.40
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.35
1.12
Sturm Graz xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
12%
8.11
10%
10.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 10.7 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.1 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.12 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
TSV Hartberg's recent record stands at 20W 23D 19L from 62 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-L in the last five.
Sturm Graz, meanwhile, have gone 33W 14D 15L across 62 games — 1.82 PPG, with D-D-D-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sturm Graz by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over TSV Hartberg heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, TSV Hartberg have managed 10W 10D 10L from their last 30 home games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sturm Graz's away record stands at 17W 6D 7L across their last 30 away games, a 1.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.79 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Current Season
Sturm Graz
Current Season
TSV Hartberg (Home) vs Sturm Graz (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
TSV Hartberg
Current Season
Sturm Graz
Current Season
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz Form FAQs
What form are TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 20W 23D 19L in their last 62 games (1.34 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 33W 14D 15L in their last 62 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Sturm Graz away?
Sturm Graz's away record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.33 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 1.90 PPG.
Have TSV Hartberg or Sturm Graz been keeping clean sheets recently?
TSV Hartberg have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Sturm Graz in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2024. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 8 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sturm Graz have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Sturm Graz specifically: 0W 1D 5L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
TSV Hartberg
3
Draws
7
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, TSV Hartberg have won 0, Sturm Graz have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 August 2026: TSV Hartberg 0-2 Sturm Graz.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 63%, Sturm Graz 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (TSV Hartberg) and 60% (Sturm Graz).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of TSV Hartberg's games and 63% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 60% of Sturm Graz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 80% of Sturm Graz's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sturm Graz cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over TSV Hartberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat TSV Hartberg 2-4 at Stadion Hartberg, Championship Group - 31, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.23 xG and Sturm Graz 1.12 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Sturm Graz outscored their 1.12 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.90 / defence 0.89 against Sturm Graz attack 1.10 / defence 1.01, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 38% | Draw 29% | Sturm Graz 33%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Sturm Graz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 44%, Sturm Graz 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.34. Form held, and they took the win. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.