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Poisson rates Austria Vienna at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Bundesliga encounter, Championship Group - 30 sees TSV Hartberg travel to Generali Arena to take on Austria Vienna. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 May 2026, 13:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Bundesliga games this season, Austria Vienna have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

At home at Generali Arena, Austria Vienna have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

TSV Hartberg — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

TSV Hartberg away from home this season: 2W 7D 1L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Austria Vienna) versus 1.10 (TSV Hartberg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 5 wins for Austria Vienna, 3 for TSV Hartberg and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Mar 2026, ended 1–0 with Austria Vienna winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Austria Vienna trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).

TSV Hartberg trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Vienna 59% versus TSV Hartberg 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 57% | TSV Hartberg 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.26 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 1.068 / defence 1.008 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.973 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: 44 Austria Vienna games / 44 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 39% | Draw 29% | TSV Hartberg 32%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | TSV Hartberg 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Austria Vienna as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Austria Vienna 60% | TSV Hartberg 40%.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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