🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Rapid Vienna at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Austria Vienna make the trip to Allianz Stadion to face Rapid Vienna in Bundesliga, Championship Group - 31. The match kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Current Form

Rapid Vienna's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Rapid Vienna's home record at Allianz Stadion: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Austria Vienna (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Austria Vienna's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 4 wins for Rapid Vienna, 3 for Austria Vienna and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Rapid Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).

Austria Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rapid Vienna 56% versus Austria Vienna 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rapid Vienna 48% | Austria Vienna 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 1.25 xG and Austria Vienna 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 0.987 / defence 0.898 | Austria Vienna attack 1.187 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: 44 Rapid Vienna games / 44 Austria Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 36% | Draw 29% | Austria Vienna 35%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Austria Vienna 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Rapid Vienna are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rapid Vienna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Rapid Vienna 50% | Austria Vienna 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights