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Sturm Graz cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over TSV Hartberg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sturm Graz beat TSV Hartberg 2-4 at Stadion Hartberg, Championship Group - 31, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.23 xG and Sturm Graz 1.12 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Sturm Graz outscored their 1.12 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.90 / defence 0.89 against Sturm Graz attack 1.10 / defence 1.01, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 38% | Draw 29% | Sturm Graz 33%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Sturm Graz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 44%, Sturm Graz 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

TSV Hartberg's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Sturm Graz's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.34. Form held, and they took the win. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights