🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 37%, yet in-form Lask Linz provide a compelling counter-argument — this TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Stadion Hartberg plays host to TSV Hartberg versus Lask Linz in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 6 December 2025 at 16:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

TSV Hartberg have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

TSV Hartberg's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stadion Hartberg this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

Lask Linz's overall Bundesliga record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Lask Linz away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Lask Linz arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H History

Lask Linz hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 7 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 3–3 with a draw.

It is worth noting that Lask Linz have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading

TSV Hartberg half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).

Lask Linz half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 54% versus Lask Linz 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 48% | Lask Linz 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.10 xG and Lask Linz 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.922 / defence 0.824 | Lask Linz attack 0.941 / defence 0.863. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.332. Data: 37 TSV Hartberg games / 37 Lask Linz games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 37% | Draw 30% | Lask Linz 34%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Lask Linz 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates TSV Hartberg as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lask Linz (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 50% | Lask Linz 30% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights