Sturm Graz 1-3 WSG Wattens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates WSG Wattens at 38%, yet in-form Sturm Graz provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sturm Graz host WSG Wattens at Merkur-Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 3 December 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sturm Graz stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sturm Graz's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Merkur-Arena this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Merkur-Arena this season.
WSG Wattens — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
WSG Wattens's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Sturm Graz are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sturm Graz register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, WSG Wattens in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Sturm Graz have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 7 past contests while WSG Wattens have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2024, ended 3–0 with Sturm Graz winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Sturm Graz and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Sturm Graz trading profile (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
WSG Wattens trading profile (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 59% versus WSG Wattens 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 61% | WSG Wattens 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.14 xG and WSG Wattens 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 0.864 / defence 1.142 | WSG Wattens attack 0.820 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.306. Data: 36 Sturm Graz games / 36 WSG Wattens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 34% | Draw 28% | WSG Wattens 38%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | WSG Wattens 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates WSG Wattens as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sturm Graz (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on WSG Wattens offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Sturm Graz 60% | WSG Wattens 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Merkur-Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 Dec 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 34% | Draw 28% | WSG Wattens 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Sturm Graz 1.14 / WSG Wattens 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 0.864 / def 1.142 | WSG Wattens attack 0.820 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: WSG Wattens (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
1.22
WSG Wattens xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens kick off?
Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 3 December 2025 at Merkur-Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens?
Sturm Graz 1 - 3 WSG Wattens.
Where is Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens being played?
The match is being played at Merkur-Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens part of?
Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 34% chance of winning, WSG Wattens a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making WSG Wattens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Sturm Graz and WSG Wattens will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and WSG Wattens?
Record (7 meetings): Sturm Graz 6W | Draws 1 | WSG Wattens 0W.
What form are Sturm Graz and WSG Wattens in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. WSG Wattens (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sturm Graz's attack rating (0.86) and WSG Wattens's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, WSG Wattens's attack versus Sturm Graz's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
WSG Wattens Win
34%
2.93
28%
3.59
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
2.37
1.22
WSG Wattens xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
10%
9.95
12%
8.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 11.5 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and WSG Wattens expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.22 for WSG Wattens, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sturm Graz's recent record stands at 27W 7D 12L from 46 games, a 1.91 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
WSG Wattens, meanwhile, have gone 11W 15D 20L across 46 games — 1.04 PPG, with W-D-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sturm Graz by 0.87 — a real, if not enormous, edge over WSG Wattens heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sturm Graz have managed 12W 4D 6L from 22 games — 1.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
WSG Wattens's away record stands at 4W 6D 12L across 22 trips, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; WSG Wattens are on 1.20 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Blended
WSG Wattens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and WSG Wattens in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 27W 7D 12L in their last 46 games (1.91 PPG), while WSG Wattens have gone 11W 15D 20L in their last 46 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or WSG Wattens away?
Sturm Graz's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 1.82 PPG; WSG Wattens away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or WSG Wattens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, WSG Wattens in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sturm Graz and WSG Wattens runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Dec 2024, when Sturm Graz won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sturm Graz's record when hosting WSG Wattens specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Sturm Graz
2
Draws
2
WSG Wattens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and WSG Wattens?
From 10 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 6, WSG Wattens have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and WSG Wattens last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when WSG Wattens 1-1 Sturm Graz.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and WSG Wattens?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 59%, WSG Wattens 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Sturm Graz) and 54% (WSG Wattens). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: WSG Wattens in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / WSG Wattens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play WSG Wattens?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Sturm Graz's games and 54% of WSG Wattens's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Sturm Graz's matches and 54% of WSG Wattens's.
Do Sturm Graz and WSG Wattens tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, WSG Wattens in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
WSG Wattens cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Sturm Graz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
WSG Wattens beat Sturm Graz 1-3 at Merkur-Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.14 xG and WSG Wattens 1.22 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. WSG Wattens outscored their 1.22 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 0.86 / defence 1.14 against WSG Wattens attack 0.82 / defence 0.96, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 34% | Draw 28% | WSG Wattens 38%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 61%, WSG Wattens 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
WSG Wattens's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.04. Form was overturned, with WSG Wattens winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.