TSV Hartberg 1-5 Red Bull Salzburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
TSV Hartberg welcome Red Bull Salzburg to PROfertil ARENA in Bundesliga (matchday 4). Kick-off is Sunday 20 August 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, TSV Hartberg stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
TSV Hartberg's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Red Bull Salzburg have recorded 8W 2D 0L — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Red Bull Salzburg's form when playing away from home: 8W 2D 0L across their last 10 road games (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Red Bull Salzburg are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
TSV Hartberg trading profile (last 35 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Red Bull Salzburg trading profile (last 35 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 54% versus Red Bull Salzburg 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 60% | Red Bull Salzburg 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.21 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 1.100 / defence 1.146 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.225 / defence 0.839. League average goals — home 1.306 / away 1.203. Red Bull Salzburg have an above-average attack rating of 1.225, which lifts their away xG to 1.69. Data: built from TSV Hartberg's last 25 games and Red Bull Salzburg's last 25. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 26% | Draw 27% | Red Bull Salzburg 47%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 3.90 | Draw 3.67 | Red Bull Salzburg 2.13. Red Bull Salzburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Red Bull Salzburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (TSV Hartberg's last 10 home games and Red Bull Salzburg's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: TSV Hartberg 60% (last 10 home games) | Red Bull Salzburg 40% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (TSV Hartberg 25 games, Red Bull Salzburg 25) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 4 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 20 August 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 26% | Draw 27% | Red Bull Salzburg 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG TSV Hartberg 1.21 / Red Bull Salzburg 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 1.100 / def 1.146 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.225 / def 0.839 | league avg home 1.306 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Red Bull Salzburg xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg FAQs
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 20 August 2023 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
TSV Hartberg 1 - 5 Red Bull Salzburg.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 4) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 26% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates TSV Hartberg's attack at 1.10x the league average against Red Bull Salzburg's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Red Bull Salzburg's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from TSV Hartberg's last 25 games and Red Bull Salzburg's last 25, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
26%
3.90
27%
3.67
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.90
1.69
Red Bull Salzburg xG
3.90
26%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
18%
5.41
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
5%
21.09
14%
7.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 9.3 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.3 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.8 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.69 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
TSV Hartberg come into this having played 35 games, going 10W 8D 17L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-W.
On the other side, Red Bull Salzburg sit at 2.46 PPG from 35 outings (26W 8D 1L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Red Bull Salzburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.37 PPG clear of TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
TSV Hartberg's home form reads 5W 4D 8L across their last 17 home games, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Red Bull Salzburg have taken 2.59 points per game from their last 17 away games (14W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Red Bull Salzburg are on 2.11 scored and 0.63 conceded.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg in 54% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Early Season
Red Bull Salzburg
Early Season
TSV Hartberg (Home) vs Red Bull Salzburg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
TSV Hartberg
Early Season
Red Bull Salzburg
Early Season
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg Form FAQs
What form are TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 10W 8D 17L in their last 35 games (1.09 PPG), while Red Bull Salzburg have gone 26W 8D 1L in their last 35 (2.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Red Bull Salzburg away?
Red Bull Salzburg's away record (2.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.12 PPG; Red Bull Salzburg away: 2.59 PPG.
Have TSV Hartberg or Red Bull Salzburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
TSV Hartberg have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Red Bull Salzburg in 54%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from November 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 1 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Mar 2024, when Red Bull Salzburg won Red Bull Salzburg 5-1 TSV Hartberg.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Red Bull Salzburg specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
TSV Hartberg
2
Draws
7
Red Bull Salzburg
Recent Meetings
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, TSV Hartberg have won 1, Red Bull Salzburg have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 August 2026: Red Bull Salzburg 1-0 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 59%, Red Bull Salzburg 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (TSV Hartberg) and 53% (Red Bull Salzburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Red Bull Salzburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 47% of Red Bull Salzburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of TSV Hartberg's matches and 53% of Red Bull Salzburg's.
Do TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 65% of Red Bull Salzburg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Red Bull Salzburg run riot with a 1-5 hammering of TSV Hartberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg beat TSV Hartberg 1-5 at PROfertil ARENA, Regular Season - 4, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.21 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.69 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Red Bull Salzburg outscored their 1.69 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 1.10 / defence 1.15 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.23 / defence 0.84, drawn from 25/25 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 26% | Draw 27% | Red Bull Salzburg 47%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 60%, Red Bull Salzburg 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 2.46 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was vindicated by the result. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.35 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.