Austria Klagenfurt 1-1 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Austria Klagenfurt at 57% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Klagenfurt vs SCR Altach encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Austria Klagenfurt host SCR Altach at 28 Black Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 August 2023 at 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Austria Klagenfurt have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Austria Klagenfurt have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Austria Klagenfurt have posted 3W 3D 4L at 28 Black Arena — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SCR Altach stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. SCR Altach have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SCR Altach's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Austria Klagenfurt) versus 1.00 (SCR Altach). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
Austria Klagenfurt hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 4 previous encounters compared to 0 for SCR Altach, with 0 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2023, ended 3–0 with Austria Klagenfurt winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Austria Klagenfurt and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Austria Klagenfurt in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
SCR Altach in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Klagenfurt 63% versus SCR Altach 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Klagenfurt 69% | SCR Altach 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Klagenfurt 1.97 xG and SCR Altach 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.072 / defence 1.090 | SCR Altach attack 0.826 / defence 1.370. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.207. SCR Altach bring a strong defensive rating of 1.370 — this is suppressing Austria Klagenfurt's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Austria Klagenfurt games / 25 SCR Altach games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 57% | Draw 23% | SCR Altach 20%. Fair-value odds: Austria Klagenfurt 1.75 | Draw 4.35 | SCR Altach 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Austria Klagenfurt (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Austria Klagenfurt are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. This conflicts with form data: Austria Klagenfurt 40% | SCR Altach 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (25 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Klagenfurt vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: 28 Black Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Aug 2023, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 57% | Draw 23% | SCR Altach 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 58% | xG Austria Klagenfurt 1.97 / SCR Altach 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.072 / def 1.090 | SCR Altach attack 0.826 / def 1.370 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Austria Klagenfurt (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.09
SCR Altach xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Klagenfurt vs SCR Altach kick off?
Austria Klagenfurt vs SCR Altach kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 19 August 2023 at 28 Black Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Klagenfurt vs SCR Altach?
Austria Klagenfurt 1 - 1 SCR Altach.
Where is Austria Klagenfurt vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at 28 Black Arena.
What competition is Austria Klagenfurt vs SCR Altach part of?
Austria Klagenfurt vs SCR Altach is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Klagenfurt vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives Austria Klagenfurt a 57% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Austria Klagenfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Klagenfurt vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Austria Klagenfurt and SCR Altach will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Klagenfurt vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and SCR Altach?
Record (4 meetings): Austria Klagenfurt 4W | Draws 0 | SCR Altach 0W.
What form are Austria Klagenfurt and SCR Altach in?
Austria Klagenfurt (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. SCR Altach (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Austria Klagenfurt's attack at 1.07x the league average against SCR Altach's defence at 1.37x — combine the two and it projects 1.97 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SCR Altach's attack versus Austria Klagenfurt's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (25/25 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Klagenfurt Win
57%
1.75
23%
4.37
20%
5.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Total xG
3.05
1.09
SCR Altach xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
5.02
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
14%
7.15
Win to Nil
19%
5.19
3%
35.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.1 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Klagenfurt vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Austria Klagenfurt and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Austria Klagenfurt and 1.09 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Klagenfurt vs SCR Altach?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 35 outings, Austria Klagenfurt have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 12W 7D 16L record — L-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Austria Klagenfurt, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SCR Altach's form line: 7W 10D 18L from 35 games, 0.89 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for SCR Altach, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Austria Klagenfurt on 1.23 PPG, SCR Altach on 0.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Austria Klagenfurt have posted 1.12 PPG from 17 outings (5W 4D 8L).
On the road, SCR Altach have gone 3W 5D 9L from 17 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Austria Klagenfurt are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 0.86 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Klagenfurt have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Klagenfurt
Early Season
SCR Altach
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Klagenfurt and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
Austria Klagenfurt have gone 12W 7D 16L in their last 35 games (1.23 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 7W 10D 18L in their last 35 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Klagenfurt at home or SCR Altach away?
Austria Klagenfurt's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Klagenfurt at home: 1.12 PPG; SCR Altach away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Austria Klagenfurt and SCR Altach runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Sep 2021, when Austria Klagenfurt won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Austria Klagenfurt's record when hosting SCR Altach specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Austria Klagenfurt
4
Draws
1
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and SCR Altach?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Klagenfurt have won 5, SCR Altach have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Austria Klagenfurt and SCR Altach last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2025, when SCR Altach 0-0 Austria Klagenfurt.
Who has won more matches between Austria Klagenfurt and SCR Altach?
Austria Klagenfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Austria Klagenfurt see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Klagenfurt 47%, SCR Altach 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Austria Klagenfurt) and 65% (SCR Altach). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Austria Klagenfurt have failed to score in 35% of games; SCR Altach in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Klagenfurt home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Klagenfurt play SCR Altach?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Austria Klagenfurt's recent matches and 47% of SCR Altach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Austria Klagenfurt vs SCR Altach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Austria Klagenfurt's matches and 65% of SCR Altach's.
Do Austria Klagenfurt and SCR Altach tend to score early?
Austria Klagenfurt have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, SCR Altach in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Austria Klagenfurt and SCR Altach share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at 28 Black Arena, Regular Season - 4, as Austria Klagenfurt and SCR Altach drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Klagenfurt 1.97 xG and SCR Altach 1.09 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Austria Klagenfurt fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.07 / defence 1.09 against SCR Altach attack 0.83 / defence 1.37, drawn from 25/25 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Austria Klagenfurt 57% | Draw 23% | SCR Altach 20%, with Austria Klagenfurt to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Klagenfurt 69%, SCR Altach 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
SCR Altach's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Klagenfurt 1.23 PPG, SCR Altach 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SCR Altach (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.