Red Bull Salzburg 2-0 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Austria Vienna make the trip to Red Bull Arena to face Red Bull Salzburg in Bundesliga (matchday 3). The match kicks off on Sunday 13 August 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Red Bull Salzburg have collected 2.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Red Bull Salzburg's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 3D 0L (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Austria Vienna (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Austria Vienna have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Red Bull Salzburg. A 1.20 PPG lead over Austria Vienna (2.40 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Red Bull Salzburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 34 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
Austria Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 34 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Red Bull Salzburg 47% versus Austria Vienna 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Red Bull Salzburg 50% | Austria Vienna 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Red Bull Salzburg 1.47 xG and Austria Vienna 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.195 / defence 0.775 | Austria Vienna attack 1.088 / defence 0.842. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.353. Red Bull Salzburg have a tight defence (rating 0.775), which is pulling Austria Vienna's projected output down. Data: built from Red Bull Salzburg's last 24 games and Austria Vienna's last 24. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 41% | Draw 33% | Austria Vienna 26%. Fair-value odds: Red Bull Salzburg 2.44 | Draw 3.00 | Austria Vienna 3.89. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Red Bull Salzburg at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Red Bull Salzburg if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — low conviction — though recent form (Red Bull Salzburg's last 10 home games and Austria Vienna's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Red Bull Salzburg 50% (last 10 home games) | Austria Vienna 80% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Red Bull Salzburg 24 games, Austria Vienna 24) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 3 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 13 August 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 41% | Draw 33% | Austria Vienna 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Red Bull Salzburg 1.47 / Austria Vienna 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.195 / def 0.775 | Austria Vienna attack 1.088 / def 0.842 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.353 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Austria Vienna xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna FAQs
What time does Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna kick off?
Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 13 August 2023 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna?
Red Bull Salzburg 2 - 0 Austria Vienna.
Where is Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna part of?
Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 3) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Red Bull Salzburg a 41% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 26% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Vienna will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Red Bull Salzburg's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Austria Vienna's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. Flip it around — Austria Vienna's attack (1.09x) against Red Bull Salzburg's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from Red Bull Salzburg's last 24 games and Austria Vienna's last 24, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.2%), 2-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
41%
2.44
33%
3.00
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Total xG
2.61
1.14
Austria Vienna xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
13%
7.63
6%
16.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.3 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 1.14 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 34 outings, Red Bull Salzburg have picked up 2.44 PPG on a 25W 8D 1L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Austria Vienna's form line: 13W 10D 11L from 34 games, 1.44 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Red Bull Salzburg are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Austria Vienna.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Red Bull Salzburg have posted 2.29 PPG from their last 17 home games (11W 6D 0L).
On the road, Austria Vienna have gone 5W 7D 5L from their last 17 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Red Bull Salzburg are averaging 2.12 goals scored and 0.65 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.82 scored and 1.53 conceded. Austria Vienna's attacking output running into Red Bull Salzburg's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Vienna in 68%.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Red Bull Salzburg
Early Season
Austria Vienna
Early Season
Red Bull Salzburg (Home) vs Austria Vienna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Red Bull Salzburg
Early Season
Austria Vienna
Early Season
❓ Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna Form FAQs
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
Red Bull Salzburg have gone 25W 8D 1L in their last 34 games (2.44 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 13W 10D 11L in their last 34 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Red Bull Salzburg at home or Austria Vienna away?
Red Bull Salzburg's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Red Bull Salzburg at home: 2.29 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Red Bull Salzburg or Austria Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their recent games, Austria Vienna in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Vienna, the earliest from November 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Red Bull Salzburg have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Red Bull Salzburg won Austria Vienna 0-3 Red Bull Salzburg on 26 Oct 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Red Bull Salzburg have gone 4W 0D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Austria Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Red Bull Salzburg
1
Draws
1
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Vienna?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Red Bull Salzburg have won 8, Austria Vienna have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Vienna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: Red Bull Salzburg 4-1 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Vienna?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Red Bull Salzburg see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Red Bull Salzburg 47%, Austria Vienna 76% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Red Bull Salzburg) and 71% (Austria Vienna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Red Bull Salzburg home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Vienna matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Red Bull Salzburg's games and 76% of Austria Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Vienna matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Red Bull Salzburg's matches and 71% of Austria Vienna's.
Do Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Vienna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 53% of Red Bull Salzburg's recent matches and 82% of Austria Vienna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Red Bull Salzburg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Austria Vienna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg beat Austria Vienna 2-0 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Red Bull Salzburg 1.47 xG and Austria Vienna 1.14 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Austria Vienna landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.20 / defence 0.78 against Austria Vienna attack 1.09 / defence 0.84, drawn from 24/24 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Red Bull Salzburg 41% | Draw 33% | Austria Vienna 26%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Red Bull Salzburg 50%, Austria Vienna 76%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and duly kept one.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.44. Form held, and they took the win. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.