Austria Lustenau 0-1 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Austria Lustenau and Sturm Graz meet at Planet Pure Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 August 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Austria Lustenau (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Austria Lustenau have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Austria Lustenau have posted 4W 2D 4L at Planet Pure Stadion — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sturm Graz's overall Bundesliga record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Sturm Graz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Sturm Graz have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sturm Graz are 0.80 PPG clear of Austria Lustenau in recent Bundesliga fixtures (1.90 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Austria Lustenau have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sturm Graz in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Austria Lustenau lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2023, ended 0–2 with Sturm Graz winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Austria Lustenau — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Sturm Graz — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Lustenau 60% versus Sturm Graz 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Lustenau 57% | Sturm Graz 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Lustenau 0.94 xG and Sturm Graz 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Lustenau attack 0.877 / defence 1.116 | Sturm Graz attack 1.218 / defence 0.772. League average goals — home 1.395 / away 1.249. Sturm Graz's defence strength of 0.772 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Sturm Graz have an above-average attack strength of 1.218 — the away xG of 1.70 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 25 Austria Lustenau games / 25 Sturm Graz games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 20% | Draw 25% | Sturm Graz 55%. Fair-value odds: Austria Lustenau 5.00 | Draw 4.00 | Sturm Graz 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Sturm Graz (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sturm Graz are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Austria Lustenau 60% | Sturm Graz 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (25 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Planet Pure Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Aug 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 20% | Draw 25% | Sturm Graz 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 50% | xG Austria Lustenau 0.94 / Sturm Graz 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Lustenau attack 0.877 / def 1.116 | Sturm Graz attack 1.218 / def 0.772 | league avg home 1.395 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Austria Lustenau xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Sturm Graz xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz kick off?
Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 19 August 2023 at Planet Pure Stadion.
What was the final score in Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz?
Austria Lustenau 0 - 1 Sturm Graz.
Where is Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Planet Pure Stadion.
What competition is Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz part of?
Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives Austria Lustenau a 20% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 55% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Austria Lustenau and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and Sturm Graz?
Record (2 meetings): Austria Lustenau 0W | Draws 0 | Sturm Graz 2W.
What form are Austria Lustenau and Sturm Graz in?
Austria Lustenau (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. Sturm Graz (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Austria Lustenau's attack at 0.88x the league average against Sturm Graz's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sturm Graz's attack (1.22x) against Austria Lustenau's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.70.
The sample (25/25 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.6%), 0-2 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
20%
4.89
25%
4.03
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
0 – 2
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Austria Lustenau xG
Total xG
2.64
1.70
Sturm Graz xG
4.89
20%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
18%
5.46
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
4%
26.66
21%
4.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 12.1 | 10.3 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Austria Lustenau and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Austria Lustenau and 1.70 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 35 outings, Austria Lustenau have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 11W 12D 12L record — D-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Austria Lustenau, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sturm Graz's form line: 22W 7D 6L from 35 games, 2.09 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Sturm Graz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Sturm Graz are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Austria Lustenau.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Austria Lustenau have posted 1.35 PPG from 17 outings (6W 5D 6L).
On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 9W 5D 3L from 17 away games — 1.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Austria Lustenau are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.77 scored and 0.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Lustenau have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sturm Graz in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Lustenau
Early Season
Sturm Graz
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Lustenau and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
Austria Lustenau have gone 11W 12D 12L in their last 35 games (1.29 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 22W 7D 6L in their last 35 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Lustenau at home or Sturm Graz away?
Sturm Graz's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Lustenau at home: 1.35 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 1.88 PPG.
Have Austria Lustenau or Sturm Graz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Austria Lustenau have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Sturm Graz in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 November 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Sturm Graz have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Lustenau have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sturm Graz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Austria Lustenau
0
Draws
4
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and Sturm Graz?
From 4 meetings on record, Austria Lustenau have won 0, Sturm Graz have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Austria Lustenau and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 25 November 2023, when Sturm Graz 2-0 Austria Lustenau.
Who has won more matches between Austria Lustenau and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Austria Lustenau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sturm Graz see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Lustenau 59%, Sturm Graz 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Austria Lustenau) and 47% (Sturm Graz).
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Lustenau home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Lustenau play Sturm Graz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Austria Lustenau's games and 59% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Austria Lustenau's recent games and 47% of Sturm Graz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Austria Lustenau and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
Austria Lustenau have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sturm Graz edge out Austria Lustenau 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat Austria Lustenau 0-1 at Planet Pure Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Lustenau 0.94 xG and Sturm Graz 1.70 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Austria Lustenau fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Lustenau attack 0.88 / defence 1.12 against Sturm Graz attack 1.22 / defence 0.77, drawn from 25/25 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Austria Lustenau 20% | Draw 25% | Sturm Graz 55%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Lustenau 57%, Sturm Graz 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Lustenau's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.29. Form held, and they took the win. Austria Lustenau (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.