TSV Hartberg 1-1 FC BW Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates TSV Hartberg at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC BW Linz make the trip to Stadion Hartberg to face TSV Hartberg in Bundesliga (matchday 22). The match kicks off on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
TSV Hartberg's record over their last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
TSV Hartberg's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
FC BW Linz (all games): 1W 1D 8L across their last 10 — 0.40 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, FC BW Linz have posted 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward TSV Hartberg. A 1.50 PPG lead over FC BW Linz (1.90 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, TSV Hartberg edge it 3 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 9 Aug 2025, ended TSV Hartberg 1–0 FC BW Linz — a TSV Hartberg win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
TSV Hartberg half-time and goal-timing data (last 53 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
FC BW Linz half-time and goal-timing data (last 53 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 53% versus FC BW Linz 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 45% | FC BW Linz 53%). Note also that FC BW Linz surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while TSV Hartberg recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.27 xG and FC BW Linz 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.890 / defence 0.799 | FC BW Linz attack 0.692 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.202. FC BW Linz's attack rating of 0.692 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.67. TSV Hartberg have a tight defence (rating 0.799), which is pulling FC BW Linz's projected output down. Data: built from TSV Hartberg's last 43 games and FC BW Linz's last 43.
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 50% | Draw 31% | FC BW Linz 19%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 1.99 | Draw 3.23 | FC BW Linz 5.32. TSV Hartberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is TSV Hartberg at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.93 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (TSV Hartberg's last 10 home games and FC BW Linz's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: TSV Hartberg 50% (last 10 home games) | FC BW Linz 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 22 | Venue: Stadion Hartberg • Kick-off: Sunday 8 March 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 50% | Draw 31% | FC BW Linz 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 36% (No 64%) | xG TSV Hartberg 1.27 / FC BW Linz 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.890 / def 0.799 | FC BW Linz attack 0.692 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
0.67
FC BW Linz xG
36%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz FAQs
What time does TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 8 March 2026 at Stadion Hartberg.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz?
TSV Hartberg 1 - 1 FC BW Linz.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Hartberg.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz part of?
TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 22) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 50% chance of winning, FC BW Linz a 19% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both TSV Hartberg and FC BW Linz will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (64%).
Will TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
TSV Hartberg's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against FC BW Linz's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — FC BW Linz's attack (0.69x) against TSV Hartberg's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.67.
These ratings are built from TSV Hartberg's last 43 games and FC BW Linz's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 16.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (16.1%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
50%
1.99
31%
3.23
19%
5.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
1.93
0.67
FC BW Linz xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
5.32
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.81
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
51%
1.94
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
26%
3.87
5%
18.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 9.6 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.3 | 12.2 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 7.7 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and FC BW Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 0.67 for FC BW Linz, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
TSV Hartberg's recent record stands at 19W 19D 15L from 53 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-D in the last five.
FC BW Linz, meanwhile, have gone 15W 7D 31L across 53 games — 0.98 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours TSV Hartberg by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC BW Linz heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, TSV Hartberg have managed 10W 8D 7L from their last 25 home games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC BW Linz's away record stands at 4W 6D 15L across their last 25 away games, a 0.72 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, TSV Hartberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; FC BW Linz are on 1.06 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
FC BW Linz
Blended
TSV Hartberg (Home) vs FC BW Linz (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
TSV Hartberg
Blended
FC BW Linz
Blended
❓ TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz Form FAQs
What form are TSV Hartberg and FC BW Linz in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 19W 19D 15L in their last 53 games (1.43 PPG), while FC BW Linz have gone 15W 7D 31L in their last 53 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or FC BW Linz away?
TSV Hartberg's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.52 PPG; FC BW Linz away: 0.72 PPG.
Have TSV Hartberg or FC BW Linz been keeping clean sheets recently?
TSV Hartberg have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, FC BW Linz in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 8 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC BW Linz won FC BW Linz 4-1 TSV Hartberg on 16 Mar 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, TSV Hartberg have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC BW Linz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
TSV Hartberg
2
Draws
1
FC BW Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and FC BW Linz?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, TSV Hartberg have won 3, FC BW Linz have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and FC BW Linz last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 March 2026: TSV Hartberg 1-1 FC BW Linz.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and FC BW Linz?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 60%, FC BW Linz 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (TSV Hartberg) and 48% (FC BW Linz).
On the defensive side: FC BW Linz in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / FC BW Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in TSV Hartberg and FC BW Linz matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 48% of FC BW Linz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are TSV Hartberg and FC BW Linz matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 48% of FC BW Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and FC BW Linz matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 68% of FC BW Linz's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
TSV Hartberg and FC BW Linz share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Hartberg, Regular Season - 22, as TSV Hartberg and FC BW Linz drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.27 xG and FC BW Linz 0.67 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.89 / defence 0.80 against FC BW Linz attack 0.69 / defence 1.07, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 50% | Draw 31% | FC BW Linz 19%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 45%, FC BW Linz 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
FC BW Linz's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, TSV Hartberg arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.