Sturm Graz 0-0 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sturm Graz (37%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Sturm Graz face TSV Hartberg.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
TSV Hartberg travel to Merkur-Arena to take on Sturm Graz in Bundesliga (Championship Group - 26). The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 April 2026 at 14:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sturm Graz stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Sturm Graz have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, TSV Hartberg have recorded 2W 6D 2L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
TSV Hartberg's form when playing away from home: 3W 6D 1L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Sturm Graz carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
Sturm Graz hold a clear advantage across the 7 H2H matches in our data, with 5 wins compared to 0 for TSV Hartberg and 2 draws.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Nov 2025, ended Sturm Graz 1–0 TSV Hartberg — a Sturm Graz win.
The head-to-head data gives Sturm Graz an edge — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Profile
Sturm Graz in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 58% versus TSV Hartberg 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 58% | TSV Hartberg 44%). Note also that TSV Hartberg surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while Sturm Graz recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.11 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 0.962 / defence 0.926 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.970 / defence 0.861. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: built from Sturm Graz's last 44 games and TSV Hartberg's last 44.
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 37% | Draw 31% | TSV Hartberg 32%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 2.73 | Draw 3.21 | TSV Hartberg 3.10. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sturm Graz at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 64% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sturm Graz 60% (last 10 home games) | TSV Hartberg 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Group - 26 | Venue: Merkur-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 April 2026 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 37% | Draw 31% | TSV Hartberg 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Sturm Graz 1.11 / TSV Hartberg 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 0.962 / def 0.926 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.970 / def 0.861 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
1.03
TSV Hartberg xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg FAQs
What time does Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 12 April 2026 at Merkur-Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg?
Sturm Graz 0 - 0 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Merkur-Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg is a Bundesliga fixture (Championship Group - 26) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 37% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sturm Graz's attack at 0.96x the league average against TSV Hartberg's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Sturm Graz's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sturm Graz's last 44 games and TSV Hartberg's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
37%
2.73
31%
3.21
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
2.15
1.03
TSV Hartberg xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
13%
7.66
11%
9.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 12.1 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.4 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.03 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sturm Graz's recent record stands at 33W 9D 15L from 57 games, a 1.89 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-W in the last five.
TSV Hartberg, meanwhile, have gone 19W 21D 17L across 57 games — 1.37 PPG, with D-D-D-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sturm Graz by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over TSV Hartberg heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sturm Graz have managed 16W 5D 7L from their last 28 home games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
TSV Hartberg's away record stands at 9W 12D 7L across their last 28 away games, a 1.39 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.21 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Sturm Graz (Home) vs TSV Hartberg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sturm Graz
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg Form FAQs
What form are Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 33W 9D 15L in their last 57 games (1.89 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 19W 21D 17L in their last 57 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Sturm Graz's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 1.89 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or TSV Hartberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, TSV Hartberg in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from March 2024. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 8 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sturm Graz have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Sturm Graz's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Sturm Graz
3
Draws
0
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sturm Graz have won 7, TSV Hartberg have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 August 2026: TSV Hartberg 0-2 Sturm Graz.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 57%, TSV Hartberg 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Sturm Graz) and 46% (TSV Hartberg).
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; TSV Hartberg in 39%; TSV Hartberg in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Sturm Graz's recent matches and 46% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Sturm Graz's recent games and 46% of TSV Hartberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Sturm Graz's recent matches and 61% of TSV Hartberg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sturm Graz's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg finished level at 0-0 at Merkur-Arena, Championship Group - 26, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.11 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.03 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sturm Graz fell 1.1 short of their projected output. TSV Hartberg landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 0.96 / defence 0.93 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.97 / defence 0.86, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 37% | Draw 31% | TSV Hartberg 32%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 58%, TSV Hartberg 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.