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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Bundesliga clash, Championship Group - 27 as TSV Hartberg welcome Rapid Vienna to Stadion Hartberg. Kick-off is set for Sunday 19 April 2026 at 13:30 UTC.

Form Guide

TSV Hartberg — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, TSV Hartberg have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stadion Hartberg — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.

Across all Bundesliga games this season, Rapid Vienna have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Rapid Vienna's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (TSV Hartberg) versus 1.60 (Rapid Vienna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for TSV Hartberg, 3 for Rapid Vienna and 1 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Rapid Vienna in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 52% versus Rapid Vienna 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 44% | Rapid Vienna 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.19 xG and Rapid Vienna 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.887 / defence 0.877 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.892 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: 44 TSV Hartberg games / 44 Rapid Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 42% | Draw 31% | Rapid Vienna 27%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Rapid Vienna 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, TSV Hartberg are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: TSV Hartberg 50% | Rapid Vienna 60%.

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