TSV Hartberg 2-2 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Championship Group - 27 as TSV Hartberg welcome Rapid Vienna to Stadion Hartberg. Kick-off is set for Sunday 19 April 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
TSV Hartberg — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, TSV Hartberg have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stadion Hartberg — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Rapid Vienna have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rapid Vienna's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (TSV Hartberg) versus 1.60 (Rapid Vienna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for TSV Hartberg, 3 for Rapid Vienna and 1 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Rapid Vienna in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 52% versus Rapid Vienna 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 44% | Rapid Vienna 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.19 xG and Rapid Vienna 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.887 / defence 0.877 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.892 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: 44 TSV Hartberg games / 44 Rapid Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 42% | Draw 31% | Rapid Vienna 27%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Rapid Vienna 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, TSV Hartberg are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: TSV Hartberg 50% | Rapid Vienna 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Group - 27 | Venue: Stadion Hartberg • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Apr 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 42% | Draw 31% | Rapid Vienna 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.19 / Rapid Vienna 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.887 / def 0.877 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.892 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Rapid Vienna xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 19 April 2026 at Stadion Hartberg.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna?
TSV Hartberg 2 - 2 Rapid Vienna.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Hartberg.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna is a Championship Group - 27 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 42% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna?
Record (8 meetings): TSV Hartberg 4W | Draws 1 | Rapid Vienna 3W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Rapid Vienna (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
TSV Hartberg's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Rapid Vienna's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Rapid Vienna's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
42%
2.39
31%
3.20
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.08
0.90
Rapid Vienna xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
17%
5.88
8%
12.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 11.2 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.3 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 0.90 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
TSV Hartberg come into this having played 59 games, going 19W 22D 18L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-D. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rapid Vienna sit at 1.42 PPG from 59 outings (23W 15D 21L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Rapid Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: TSV Hartberg on 1.34 PPG, Rapid Vienna on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
TSV Hartberg's home form reads 10W 9D 10L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.34 PPG return.
Away from home, Rapid Vienna have taken 1.07 points per game from 29 outings (7W 10D 12L).
The Goals Picture
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.32 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Rapid Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 19W 22D 18L in their last 59 games (1.34 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 23W 15D 21L in their last 59 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Rapid Vienna away?
TSV Hartberg's home record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.34 PPG; Rapid Vienna away: 1.07 PPG.
Have TSV Hartberg or Rapid Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
TSV Hartberg have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Rapid Vienna in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Mar 2024, when Rapid Vienna won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Rapid Vienna specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
TSV Hartberg
2
Draws
3
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 5, Rapid Vienna have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when Rapid Vienna 0-2 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — TSV Hartberg at 62%, Rapid Vienna at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (TSV Hartberg) and 48% (Rapid Vienna).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Rapid Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of TSV Hartberg's games and 69% of Rapid Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 48% of Rapid Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Rapid Vienna in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Hartberg, Championship Group - 27, as TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.19 xG and Rapid Vienna 0.90 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. TSV Hartberg beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rapid Vienna outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.89 / defence 0.88 against Rapid Vienna attack 0.89 / defence 0.99, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 42% | Draw 31% | Rapid Vienna 27%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 44%, Rapid Vienna 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.34 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.