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Stalemate at Sturm Graz's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg finished level at 0-0 at Merkur-Arena, Championship Group - 26, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.11 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.03 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sturm Graz fell 1.1 short of their projected output. TSV Hartberg landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 0.96 / defence 0.93 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.97 / defence 0.86, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 37% | Draw 31% | TSV Hartberg 32%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 58%, TSV Hartberg 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sturm Graz's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

TSV Hartberg's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights