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Poisson model favours Sturm Graz (37%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sturm Graz face TSV Hartberg.

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Analysis & Preview

A Bundesliga encounter, Championship Group - 26 sees TSV Hartberg travel to Merkur-Arena to take on Sturm Graz. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 April 2026, 13:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Sturm Graz stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Sturm Graz have posted 5W 2D 3L at Merkur-Arena — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Bundesliga games this season, TSV Hartberg have recorded 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

TSV Hartberg's form when playing away from home: 3W 6D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Sturm Graz carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H Record

The fixture history tells a clear story: Sturm Graz have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 8 past contests while TSV Hartberg have managed just 0 wins.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with Sturm Graz winning.

The historical record gives Sturm Graz a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Sturm Graz in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).

TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 58% versus TSV Hartberg 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 58% | TSV Hartberg 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.11 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 0.962 / defence 0.926 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.970 / defence 0.861. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: 44 Sturm Graz games / 44 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 37% | Draw 31% | TSV Hartberg 32%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | TSV Hartberg 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Sturm Graz at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Sturm Graz 60% | TSV Hartberg 50%.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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