Sturm Graz 1-0 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sturm Graz (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sturm Graz face SCR Altach.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees SCR Altach travel to Merkur-Arena to take on Sturm Graz. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 August 2026, 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Sturm Graz — All Games: 4W 6D 0L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sturm Graz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sturm Graz's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Merkur-Arena this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Merkur-Arena.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SCR Altach have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. SCR Altach have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SCR Altach away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Sturm Graz have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Sturm Graz have dominated this rivalry, winning 7 of 9 past contests while SCR Altach have managed just 0 wins.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2026, ended 2–0 with Sturm Graz winning.
The historical record gives Sturm Graz a meaningful edge here — 7 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sturm Graz trading profile (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
SCR Altach trading profile (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 56% versus SCR Altach 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sturm Graz 38% | SCR Altach 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.34 xG and SCR Altach 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 0.985 / defence 0.990 | SCR Altach attack 0.841 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.004. Data: 24 Sturm Graz games / 24 SCR Altach games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 45% | Draw 35% | SCR Altach 20%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 2.22 | Draw 2.86 | SCR Altach 5.00. Sturm Graz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sturm Graz as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.18 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sturm Graz 50% | SCR Altach 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (24 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Merkur-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Aug 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 45% | Draw 35% | SCR Altach 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Sturm Graz 1.34 / SCR Altach 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 0.985 / def 0.990 | SCR Altach attack 0.841 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.004 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
0.83
SCR Altach xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach kick off?
Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 15 August 2026 at Merkur-Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach?
Sturm Graz 1 - 0 SCR Altach.
Where is Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at Merkur-Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach part of?
Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 45% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 20% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Sturm Graz and SCR Altach will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and SCR Altach?
Record (9 meetings): Sturm Graz 7W | Draws 2 | SCR Altach 0W.
What form are Sturm Graz and SCR Altach in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. SCR Altach (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sturm Graz's attack rating (0.98) and SCR Altach's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SCR Altach's attack versus Sturm Graz's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (24/24 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.6%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
45%
2.21
35%
2.88
20%
5.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
2.18
0.83
SCR Altach xG
2.21
45%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
5.03
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
20%
5.09
5%
19.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 12.7 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.5 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 0.83 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sturm Graz's recent record stands at 17W 9D 8L from 34 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sturm Graz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SCR Altach, meanwhile, have gone 11W 12D 11L across 34 games — 1.32 PPG, with L-D-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for SCR Altach, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sturm Graz by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SCR Altach heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sturm Graz have managed 6W 5D 5L from 16 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SCR Altach's away record stands at 1W 6D 9L across 16 trips, a 0.56 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SCR Altach's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 1.15 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Early Season
SCR Altach
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 17W 9D 8L in their last 34 games (1.76 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 11W 12D 11L in their last 34 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or SCR Altach away?
Sturm Graz's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 1.44 PPG; SCR Altach away: 0.56 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or SCR Altach been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, SCR Altach in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sturm Graz and SCR Altach runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sturm Graz have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Aug 2022, when Sturm Graz won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sturm Graz's record when hosting SCR Altach specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Sturm Graz
2
Draws
0
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and SCR Altach?
From 10 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 8, SCR Altach have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and SCR Altach last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Sturm Graz 1-0 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and SCR Altach?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sturm Graz see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 56%, SCR Altach 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Sturm Graz) and 50% (SCR Altach).
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; SCR Altach in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play SCR Altach?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Sturm Graz's recent matches and 38% of SCR Altach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Sturm Graz's recent games and 50% of SCR Altach's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sturm Graz and SCR Altach tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, SCR Altach in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sturm Graz edge out SCR Altach 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat SCR Altach 1-0 at Merkur-Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.34 xG and SCR Altach 0.83 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SCR Altach landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 0.98 / defence 0.99 against SCR Altach attack 0.84 / defence 0.94, drawn from 24/24 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 45% | Draw 35% | SCR Altach 20%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 38%, SCR Altach 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
SCR Altach's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.32. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. SCR Altach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.