Sturm Graz 1-1 Austria Lustenau – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 60% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Austria Lustenau make the trip to Merkur-Arena to face Sturm Graz in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sturm Graz have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 6D 0L. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sturm Graz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sturm Graz have posted 6W 4D 0L at Merkur-Arena — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Merkur-Arena.
Austria Lustenau (all games): 1W 1D 1L across 3 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.33 points per game. Last five: D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Austria Lustenau have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Sturm Graz, 1.33 for Austria Lustenau — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Across 4 previous meetings, Sturm Graz are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2023, ended 2–0 with Sturm Graz winning.
The historical record gives Sturm Graz a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Sturm Graz half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
Austria Lustenau half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sturm Graz 33% and Austria Lustenau 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sturm Graz 0% | Austria Lustenau 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.72 xG and Austria Lustenau 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 0.945 / defence 0.878 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.867 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.007. Data: 25 Sturm Graz games / 3 Austria Lustenau games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 60% | Draw 24% | Austria Lustenau 16%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 1.67 | Draw 4.17 | Austria Lustenau 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Sturm Graz (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sturm Graz at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. This conflicts with form data: Sturm Graz 40% | Austria Lustenau 100% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Merkur-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Aug 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 60% | Draw 24% | Austria Lustenau 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 44% | xG Sturm Graz 1.72 / Austria Lustenau 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 0.945 / def 0.878 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.867 / def 1.172 | league avg home 1.552 / away 1.007 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Austria Lustenau xG
44%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau kick off?
Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 22 August 2026 at Merkur-Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau?
Sturm Graz 1 - 1 Austria Lustenau.
Where is Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau being played?
The match is being played at Merkur-Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau part of?
Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 60% chance of winning, Austria Lustenau a 16% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sturm Graz and Austria Lustenau will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Austria Lustenau?
Record (4 meetings): Sturm Graz 4W | Draws 0 | Austria Lustenau 0W.
What form are Sturm Graz and Austria Lustenau in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Austria Lustenau (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.33 | L5 D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sturm Graz's attack at 0.94x the league average against Austria Lustenau's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Austria Lustenau's attack (0.87x) against Sturm Graz's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
The sample (25/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.4%), 2-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
60%
1.67
24%
4.11
16%
6.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
2.49
0.77
Austria Lustenau xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
6.28
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
46%
2.15
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
28%
3.60
3%
35.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 11.0 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.4 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and Austria Lustenau expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 0.77 for Austria Lustenau, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 3 outings, Sturm Graz have picked up 2.33 PPG on a 2W 1D 0L record — D-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sturm Graz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Austria Lustenau's form line: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games, 1.33 PPG, last five D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Austria Lustenau, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Sturm Graz are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Austria Lustenau.
Attack vs Defence
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game recently; Austria Lustenau are on 1.33 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Lustenau in 100%.
Defensively: Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Early Season
Austria Lustenau
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and Austria Lustenau in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 games (2.33 PPG), while Austria Lustenau have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have Sturm Graz or Austria Lustenau been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Austria Lustenau in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sturm Graz have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Austria Lustenau — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Sturm Graz
1
Draws
0
Austria Lustenau
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Austria Lustenau?
From 5 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 4, Austria Lustenau have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and Austria Lustenau last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Sturm Graz 1-1 Austria Lustenau.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and Austria Lustenau?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sturm Graz see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Austria Lustenau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 33% for Sturm Graz, 100% for Austria Lustenau — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Sturm Graz and 67% for Austria Lustenau.
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / Austria Lustenau away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play Austria Lustenau?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Sturm Graz's games and 100% of Austria Lustenau's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Sturm Graz's recent games and 67% of Austria Lustenau's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sturm Graz and Austria Lustenau tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Austria Lustenau in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sturm Graz and Austria Lustenau share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Merkur-Arena, Regular Season - 4, as Sturm Graz and Austria Lustenau drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.72 xG and Austria Lustenau 0.77 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 0.94 / defence 0.88 against Austria Lustenau attack 0.87 / defence 1.17, drawn from 25/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 60% | Draw 24% | Austria Lustenau 16%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 0%, Austria Lustenau 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Austria Lustenau's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.