SCR Altach 3-1 WSG Wattens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SCR Altach and WSG Wattens meet at Cashpoint-Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Friday 7 August 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SCR Altach have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. SCR Altach have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Cashpoint-Arena, SCR Altach have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — SCR Altach are significantly better at Cashpoint-Arena than their overall form suggests.
WSG Wattens (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. WSG Wattens have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, WSG Wattens have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — SCR Altach lead 3W to 3W over the last 9 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
SCR Altach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
WSG Wattens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 46% versus WSG Wattens 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 39% | WSG Wattens 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.45 xG and WSG Wattens 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.996 / defence 1.009 | WSG Wattens attack 1.060 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.462 / away 0.776. Data: 23 SCR Altach games / 23 WSG Wattens games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 49% | Draw 32% | WSG Wattens 19%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 2.04 | Draw 3.12 | WSG Wattens 5.26. SCR Altach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SCR Altach at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SCR Altach if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: SCR Altach 60% | WSG Wattens 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (23 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Cashpoint-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 7 Aug 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 49% | Draw 32% | WSG Wattens 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG SCR Altach 1.45 / WSG Wattens 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.996 / def 1.009 | WSG Wattens attack 1.060 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.462 / away 0.776 • Poisson stance: SCR Altach (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
0.83
WSG Wattens xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens kick off?
SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 7 August 2026 at Cashpoint-Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens?
SCR Altach 3 - 1 WSG Wattens.
Where is SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens being played?
The match is being played at Cashpoint-Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens part of?
SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 49% chance of winning, WSG Wattens a 19% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making SCR Altach the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both SCR Altach and WSG Wattens will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and WSG Wattens?
Record (9 meetings): SCR Altach 3W | Draws 3 | WSG Wattens 3W.
What form are SCR Altach and WSG Wattens in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. WSG Wattens (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
SCR Altach's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against WSG Wattens's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. Flip it around — WSG Wattens's attack (1.06x) against SCR Altach's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SCR Altach Win
49%
2.04
32%
3.12
19%
5.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
2.27
0.83
WSG Wattens xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
5.26
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
24%
4.24
Win to Nil
21%
4.68
4%
22.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.3 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.9 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and WSG Wattens expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for SCR Altach and 0.83 for WSG Wattens, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SCR Altach's recent record stands at 10W 12D 11L from 33 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for SCR Altach, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
WSG Wattens, meanwhile, have gone 10W 11D 12L across 33 games — 1.24 PPG, with W-L-D-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for WSG Wattens, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for SCR Altach against 1.24 for WSG Wattens. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, SCR Altach have managed 8W 6D 2L from 16 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.27 PPG overall — SCR Altach are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
WSG Wattens's away record stands at 3W 5D 8L across 16 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SCR Altach come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SCR Altach are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; WSG Wattens are on 1.24 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: WSG Wattens in 61%.
Last 33 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Early Season
WSG Wattens
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and WSG Wattens in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 10W 12D 11L in their last 33 games (1.27 PPG), while WSG Wattens have gone 10W 11D 12L in their last 33 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or WSG Wattens away?
SCR Altach's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 1.88 PPG; WSG Wattens away: 0.88 PPG.
Have SCR Altach or WSG Wattens been keeping clean sheets recently?
SCR Altach have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, WSG Wattens in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SCR Altach won 3-0 on 26 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SCR Altach have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against WSG Wattens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
SCR Altach
3
Draws
3
WSG Wattens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and WSG Wattens?
From 10 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 4, WSG Wattens have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and WSG Wattens last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when SCR Altach 3-1 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and WSG Wattens?
SCR Altach have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 56%, WSG Wattens 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (SCR Altach) and 50% (WSG Wattens).
On the defensive side: SCR Altach keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; WSG Wattens in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / WSG Wattens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play WSG Wattens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of SCR Altach's recent matches and 50% of WSG Wattens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of SCR Altach's recent games and 50% of WSG Wattens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and WSG Wattens tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, WSG Wattens in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SCR Altach cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over WSG Wattens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SCR Altach beat WSG Wattens 3-1 at Cashpoint-Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.45 xG and WSG Wattens 0.83 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. SCR Altach beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 1.00 / defence 1.01 against WSG Wattens attack 1.06 / defence 0.99, drawn from 23/23 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 49% | Draw 32% | WSG Wattens 19%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 39%, WSG Wattens 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
WSG Wattens's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SCR Altach 1.27 PPG, WSG Wattens 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SCR Altach win broke the near-deadlock. SCR Altach (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.