TSV Hartberg 0-2 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
TSV Hartberg host Austria Vienna at Profertil Arena Hartberg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 16 August 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, TSV Hartberg have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. TSV Hartberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
TSV Hartberg at Profertil Arena Hartberg this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Austria Vienna stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Austria Vienna have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Austria Vienna have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (TSV Hartberg) versus 0.80 (Austria Vienna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
Austria Vienna have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 9 encounters against TSV Hartberg's 2 victories.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2026, ended 0–1 with Austria Vienna winning.
It is worth noting that Austria Vienna have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
TSV Hartberg in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Austria Vienna in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 50% versus Austria Vienna 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 44% | Austria Vienna 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.35 xG and Austria Vienna 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.811 / defence 1.111 | Austria Vienna attack 0.943 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 0.956. Data: 24 TSV Hartberg games / 24 Austria Vienna games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 43% | Draw 32% | Austria Vienna 25%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.33 | Draw 3.12 | Austria Vienna 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is TSV Hartberg at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: TSV Hartberg 60% | Austria Vienna 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (24 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Profertil Arena Hartberg • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Aug 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 43% | Draw 32% | Austria Vienna 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.35 / Austria Vienna 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.811 / def 1.111 | Austria Vienna attack 0.943 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.468 / away 0.956 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Austria Vienna xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 16 August 2026 at Profertil Arena Hartberg.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna?
TSV Hartberg 0 - 2 Austria Vienna.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Profertil Arena Hartberg.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 43% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna?
Record (9 meetings): TSV Hartberg 2W | Draws 1 | Austria Vienna 6W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Austria Vienna (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
TSV Hartberg's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Austria Vienna's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Vienna's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (24/24 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
43%
2.35
32%
3.13
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 0
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.35
1.00
Austria Vienna xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
16%
6.38
7%
15.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.9 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.00 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
TSV Hartberg come into this having played 34 games, going 10W 12D 12L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Austria Vienna sit at 1.38 PPG from 34 outings (14W 5D 15L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Austria Vienna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: TSV Hartberg on 1.24 PPG, Austria Vienna on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
TSV Hartberg's home form reads 4W 5D 8L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Austria Vienna have taken 1.53 points per game from 17 outings (8W 2D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.32 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Early Season
Austria Vienna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 10W 12D 12L in their last 34 games (1.24 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 14W 5D 15L in their last 34 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Austria Vienna away?
Austria Vienna's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.00 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Austria Vienna go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Austria Vienna specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
TSV Hartberg
1
Draws
7
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 2, Austria Vienna have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when TSV Hartberg 0-2 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 59%, Austria Vienna 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (TSV Hartberg) and 65% (Austria Vienna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Austria Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of TSV Hartberg's games and 65% of Austria Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of TSV Hartberg's matches and 65% of Austria Vienna's.
Do TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Austria Vienna in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Austria Vienna cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over TSV Hartberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna beat TSV Hartberg 0-2 at Profertil Arena Hartberg, Regular Season - 3, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.35 xG and Austria Vienna 1.00 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. TSV Hartberg fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Austria Vienna outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.81 / defence 1.11 against Austria Vienna attack 0.94 / defence 1.14, drawn from 24/24 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 43% | Draw 32% | Austria Vienna 25%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Austria Vienna win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 44%, Austria Vienna 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.24 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.