SCR Altach 3-1 FC BW Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SCR Altach at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC BW Linz make the trip to Cashpoint-Arena to face SCR Altach in Bundesliga (Relegation Group - 23). The match kicks off on Saturday 14 March 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
SCR Altach (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
SCR Altach's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 5D 1L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC BW Linz's record over their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC BW Linz's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward SCR Altach. A 1.00 PPG lead over FC BW Linz (1.50 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 8 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for SCR Altach, 3 for FC BW Linz and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Feb 2026, ended SCR Altach 1–0 FC BW Linz — a SCR Altach win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
SCR Altach — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
FC BW Linz — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 46% versus FC BW Linz 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 39% | FC BW Linz 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.41 xG and FC BW Linz 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 1.010 / defence 0.881 | FC BW Linz attack 0.749 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. FC BW Linz's attack rating of 0.749 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.76. Data: built from SCR Altach's last 44 games and FC BW Linz's last 44.
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 52% | Draw 29% | FC BW Linz 19%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 1.93 | Draw 3.47 | FC BW Linz 5.16. SCR Altach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SCR Altach as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SCR Altach if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 63% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: SCR Altach 70% (last 10 home games) | FC BW Linz 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Group - 23 | Venue: Cashpoint-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 March 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 52% | Draw 29% | FC BW Linz 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG SCR Altach 1.41 / FC BW Linz 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 1.010 / def 0.881 | FC BW Linz attack 0.749 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: SCR Altach (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
0.76
FC BW Linz xG
41%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz FAQs
What time does SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz kick off?
SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Cashpoint-Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz?
SCR Altach 3 - 1 FC BW Linz.
Where is SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz being played?
The match is being played at Cashpoint-Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz part of?
SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz is a Bundesliga fixture (Relegation Group - 23) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 52% chance of winning, FC BW Linz a 19% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making SCR Altach the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both SCR Altach and FC BW Linz will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from SCR Altach's attack rating (1.01) and FC BW Linz's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC BW Linz's attack (0.75x) against SCR Altach's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from SCR Altach's last 44 games and FC BW Linz's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SCR Altach Win
52%
1.93
29%
3.47
19%
5.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
2.17
0.76
FC BW Linz xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
5.16
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
24%
4.12
5%
21.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 12.2 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 8.6 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and FC BW Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for SCR Altach and 0.76 for FC BW Linz, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SCR Altach come into this having played 54 games, going 12W 19D 23L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-L.
On the other side, FC BW Linz sit at 0.98 PPG from 54 outings (15W 8D 31L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for SCR Altach against 0.98 for FC BW Linz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
SCR Altach's home form reads 7W 13D 7L across their last 27 home games, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, FC BW Linz have taken 0.70 points per game from their last 27 away games (4W 7D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SCR Altach come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SCR Altach are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; FC BW Linz are on 1.06 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Blended
FC BW Linz
Blended
SCR Altach (Home) vs FC BW Linz (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SCR Altach
Blended
FC BW Linz
Blended
❓ SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz Form FAQs
What form are SCR Altach and FC BW Linz in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 12W 19D 23L in their last 54 games (1.02 PPG), while FC BW Linz have gone 15W 8D 31L in their last 54 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or FC BW Linz away?
SCR Altach's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 1.26 PPG; FC BW Linz away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between SCR Altach and FC BW Linz, the earliest from September 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 24 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC BW Linz won FC BW Linz 3-0 SCR Altach on 24 Apr 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SCR Altach have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC BW Linz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
SCR Altach
3
Draws
4
FC BW Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and FC BW Linz?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, SCR Altach have won 3, FC BW Linz have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and FC BW Linz last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 April 2026: FC BW Linz 3-0 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and FC BW Linz?
FC BW Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 59%, FC BW Linz 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (SCR Altach) and 48% (FC BW Linz).
On the defensive side: FC BW Linz in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / FC BW Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SCR Altach and FC BW Linz matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of SCR Altach's games and 52% of FC BW Linz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SCR Altach and FC BW Linz matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of SCR Altach's recent games and 48% of FC BW Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and FC BW Linz matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of SCR Altach's recent matches and 70% of FC BW Linz's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SCR Altach cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC BW Linz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SCR Altach beat FC BW Linz 3-1 at Cashpoint-Arena, Relegation Group - 23, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.41 xG and FC BW Linz 0.76 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. SCR Altach beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 1.01 / defence 0.88 against FC BW Linz attack 0.75 / defence 1.04, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 52% | Draw 29% | FC BW Linz 19%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 39%, FC BW Linz 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
FC BW Linz's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SCR Altach 1.02 PPG, FC BW Linz 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SCR Altach win broke the near-deadlock. SCR Altach (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.