Ried vs SCR Altach – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ried at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ried vs SCR Altach fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Innviertel Arena plays host to Ried versus SCR Altach in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 23 January 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ried's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Ried, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Innviertel Arena, Ried have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Ried are significantly better at Innviertel Arena than their overall form suggests.
SCR Altach (all games): 3W 0D 7L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SCR Altach away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: Ried 3W, SCR Altach 5W, 2D.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2026, ended 0–2 with SCR Altach winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Ried half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
SCR Altach half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ried 58% versus SCR Altach 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ried 51% | SCR Altach 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ried 1.92 xG and SCR Altach 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ried attack 1.056 / defence 0.998 | SCR Altach attack 0.549 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.806 / away 1.304. Data: 31 Ried games / 31 SCR Altach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ried 63% | Draw 26% | SCR Altach 11%. Fair-value odds: Ried 1.59 | Draw 3.85 | SCR Altach 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Ried (63%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
SCR Altach lead the H2H ledger, but Ried carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Ried as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ried 70% | SCR Altach 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ried vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Innviertel Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Jan 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ried 63% | Draw 26% | SCR Altach 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 46% | xG Ried 1.92 / SCR Altach 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Ried attack 1.056 / def 0.998 | SCR Altach attack 0.549 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.806 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Ried (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Ried xG
Expected Goals
0.71
SCR Altach xG
46%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ried vs SCR Altach kick off?
Ried vs SCR Altach is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 23 January 2027 at Innviertel Arena.
Where is Ried vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at Innviertel Arena.
What competition is Ried vs SCR Altach part of?
Ried vs SCR Altach is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Ried vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives Ried a 63% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 11% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ried the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ried vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Ried and SCR Altach will score (BTTS).
Will Ried vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and SCR Altach?
Record (10 meetings): Ried 3W | Draws 2 | SCR Altach 5W.
What form are Ried and SCR Altach in?
Ried (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. SCR Altach (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ried's attack at 1.06x the league average against SCR Altach's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.92 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SCR Altach's attack (0.55x) against Ried's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.71.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 1-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ried Win
63%
1.58
26%
3.83
11%
9.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.2%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Ried xG
Total xG
2.63
0.71
SCR Altach xG
1.58
63%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
9.45
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
15%
6.79
Win to Nil
31%
3.23
2%
64.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 9.9 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.2 | 9.5 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.4 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ried vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Ried and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Ried and 0.71 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Ried vs SCR Altach?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ried's recent record stands at 18W 7D 16L from 41 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Ried is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SCR Altach, meanwhile, have gone 12W 12D 17L across 41 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Ried against 1.17 for SCR Altach. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Ried have managed 13W 3D 5L from 21 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.49 PPG overall — Ried are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
SCR Altach's away record stands at 2W 6D 13L across 21 trips, a 0.57 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SCR Altach's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ried come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ried are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 1.07 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ried
Blended
SCR Altach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ried and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
Ried have gone 18W 7D 16L in their last 41 games (1.49 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 12W 12D 17L in their last 41 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ried at home or SCR Altach away?
Ried's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ried at home: 2.00 PPG; SCR Altach away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ried won 3-0 on 13 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ried have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Ried
2
Draws
5
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and SCR Altach?
From 10 meetings on record, Ried have won 3, SCR Altach have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ried and SCR Altach last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when SCR Altach 2-0 Ried.
Who has won more matches between Ried and SCR Altach?
SCR Altach have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ried 52%, SCR Altach 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Ried) and 48% (SCR Altach).
On the defensive side: SCR Altach in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ried home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ried play SCR Altach?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Ried's recent matches and 29% of SCR Altach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ried vs SCR Altach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Ried's recent games and 48% of SCR Altach's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ried and SCR Altach tend to score early?
Ried have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, SCR Altach in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.