Ried 0-1 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ried at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ried face Wolfsberger AC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Wolfsberger AC travel to Innviertel Arena to take on Ried in Bundesliga (Relegation Group - 31). The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 May 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Ried have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ried's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Ried are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Wolfsberger AC stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Wolfsberger AC have gone 1W 0D 9L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ried 1.40 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Ried, 2 for Wolfsberger AC and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.6 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 11 Apr 2026, ended Ried 0–0 Wolfsberger AC — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Ried trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Wolfsberger AC trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ried 53% versus Wolfsberger AC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ried 47% | Wolfsberger AC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ried 1.29 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ried attack 0.803 / defence 1.090 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.948 / defence 1.199. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: built from Ried's last 22 games and Wolfsberger AC's last 44.
Result probabilities: Ried 38% | Draw 28% | Wolfsberger AC 33%. Fair-value odds: Ried 2.61 | Draw 3.51 | Wolfsberger AC 3.02. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ried at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ried offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.6 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ried 50% (last 10 home games) | Wolfsberger AC 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ried vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Group - 31 | Venue: Innviertel Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ried 38% | Draw 28% | Wolfsberger AC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Ried 1.29 / Wolfsberger AC 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Ried attack 0.803 / def 1.090 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.948 / def 1.199 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Ried (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Ried xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Wolfsberger AC xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ried vs Wolfsberger AC FAQs
What time does Ried vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
Ried vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Innviertel Arena.
What was the final score in Ried vs Wolfsberger AC?
Ried 0 - 1 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is Ried vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at Innviertel Arena.
What competition is Ried vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
Ried vs Wolfsberger AC is a Bundesliga fixture (Relegation Group - 31) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Ried vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives Ried a 38% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ried the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ried vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Ried and Wolfsberger AC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ried vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ried's attack rating (0.80) and Wolfsberger AC's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wolfsberger AC's attack versus Ried's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ried's last 22 games and Wolfsberger AC's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ried Win
38%
2.61
28%
3.51
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Ried xG
Total xG
2.48
1.19
Wolfsberger AC xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
12%
8.54
9%
11.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.9 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.8 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ried vs Wolfsberger AC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ried vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Ried and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Ried and 1.19 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Ried vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, Ried have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 12W 6D 12L record — D-D-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Wolfsberger AC's form line: 9W 8D 13L from 30 games, 1.17 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ried on 1.40 PPG, Wolfsberger AC on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ried have posted 1.80 PPG from their last 15 home games (8W 3D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Ried are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Wolfsberger AC have gone 4W 2D 9L from their last 15 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ried come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ried are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.27 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC in 60%.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ried
Current Season
Wolfsberger AC
Current Season
Ried (Home) vs Wolfsberger AC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ried
Current Season
Wolfsberger AC
Current Season
❓ Ried vs Wolfsberger AC Form FAQs
What form are Ried and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
Ried have gone 12W 6D 12L in their last 30 games (1.40 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 9W 8D 13L in their last 30 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ried at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Ried's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ried at home: 1.80 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ried have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 Sep 2026, when Ried won Ried 4-1 Wolfsberger AC.
Ried's record when hosting Wolfsberger AC specifically: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Ried
2
Draws
3
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Ried vs Wolfsberger AC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and Wolfsberger AC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Ried have won 5, Wolfsberger AC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ried and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Ried 4-1 Wolfsberger AC.
Who has won more matches between Ried and Wolfsberger AC?
Ried have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ried 47%, Wolfsberger AC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Ried) and 67% (Wolfsberger AC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ried keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ried have failed to score in 27% of games; Wolfsberger AC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ried home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ried vs Wolfsberger AC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ried and Wolfsberger AC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Ried's games and 67% of Wolfsberger AC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Ried and Wolfsberger AC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Ried's matches and 67% of Wolfsberger AC's.
Do Ried and Wolfsberger AC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Ried's recent matches and 87% of Wolfsberger AC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Wolfsberger AC defy the odds to beat Ried 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolfsberger AC beat Ried 0-1 at Innviertel Arena, Relegation Group - 31, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ried 1.29 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.19 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ried fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ried attack 0.80 / defence 1.09 against Wolfsberger AC attack 0.95 / defence 1.20, drawn from 22/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ried 38% | Draw 28% | Wolfsberger AC 33%, with Ried to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Wolfsberger AC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ried 47%, Wolfsberger AC 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ried's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ried 1.40 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wolfsberger AC win broke the near-deadlock. Ried (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.