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Sturm Graz cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Rapid Vienna.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sturm Graz beat Rapid Vienna 0-2 at Allianz Stadion, Championship Group - 25, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.34 xG and Sturm Graz 1.12 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Rapid Vienna fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Sturm Graz outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 0.98 / defence 0.87 against Sturm Graz attack 1.12 / defence 1.01, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 41% | Draw 29% | Sturm Graz 31%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Sturm Graz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 50%, Sturm Graz 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rapid Vienna's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Sturm Graz's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.46. That form edge translated into the three points. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights