Rapid Vienna 0-2 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rapid Vienna at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Rapid Vienna face Sturm Graz.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sturm Graz make the trip to Allianz Stadion to face Rapid Vienna in Bundesliga (Championship Group - 25). The match kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Form
Rapid Vienna (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Rapid Vienna at home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sturm Graz have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Sturm Graz have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Rapid Vienna edge it 4 wins to 2, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Nov 2025, ended Rapid Vienna 2–1 Sturm Graz — a Rapid Vienna win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Rapid Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Sturm Graz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rapid Vienna 57% versus Sturm Graz 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rapid Vienna 50% | Sturm Graz 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 1.34 xG and Sturm Graz 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 0.983 / defence 0.872 | Sturm Graz attack 1.121 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: built from Rapid Vienna's last 44 games and Sturm Graz's last 44.
Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 41% | Draw 29% | Sturm Graz 31%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 2.45 | Draw 3.50 | Sturm Graz 3.28. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rapid Vienna as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rapid Vienna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Rapid Vienna's last 10 home games and Sturm Graz's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches point the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rapid Vienna 70% (last 10 home games) | Sturm Graz 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Group - 25 | Venue: Allianz Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 5 April 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 41% | Draw 29% | Sturm Graz 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Rapid Vienna 1.34 / Sturm Graz 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Rapid Vienna attack 0.983 / def 0.872 | Sturm Graz attack 1.121 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Rapid Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Sturm Graz xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz FAQs
What time does Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz kick off?
Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 5 April 2026 at Allianz Stadion.
What was the final score in Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Rapid Vienna 0 - 2 Sturm Graz.
Where is Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadion.
What competition is Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz part of?
Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz is a Bundesliga fixture (Championship Group - 25) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives Rapid Vienna a 41% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rapid Vienna's attack at 0.98x the league average against Sturm Graz's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sturm Graz's attack (1.12x) against Rapid Vienna's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from Rapid Vienna's last 44 games and Sturm Graz's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
41%
2.45
29%
3.50
31%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Rapid Vienna xG
Total xG
2.46
1.12
Sturm Graz xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.28
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
13%
7.52
8%
12.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.8 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Rapid Vienna and 1.12 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rapid Vienna's recent record stands at 23W 13D 20L from 56 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five.
Sturm Graz, meanwhile, have gone 32W 9D 15L across 56 games — 1.88 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sturm Graz by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rapid Vienna heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Rapid Vienna have managed 16W 4D 8L from their last 28 home games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.46 PPG overall — Rapid Vienna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sturm Graz's away record stands at 16W 4D 8L across their last 28 away games, a 1.86 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rapid Vienna are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.88 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rapid Vienna
Blended
Sturm Graz
Blended
Rapid Vienna (Home) vs Sturm Graz (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rapid Vienna
Blended
Sturm Graz
Blended
❓ Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz Form FAQs
What form are Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
Rapid Vienna have gone 23W 13D 20L in their last 56 games (1.46 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 32W 9D 15L in their last 56 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rapid Vienna at home or Sturm Graz away?
Rapid Vienna's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rapid Vienna at home: 1.86 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Rapid Vienna or Sturm Graz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rapid Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Sturm Graz in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rapid Vienna have gone 4W 0D 2L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sturm Graz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Rapid Vienna
1
Draws
4
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Rapid Vienna have won 5, Sturm Graz have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: Rapid Vienna 3-1 Sturm Graz.
Who has won more matches between Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz?
Rapid Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rapid Vienna 46%, Sturm Graz 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Rapid Vienna) and 64% (Sturm Graz). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rapid Vienna keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rapid Vienna home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Rapid Vienna's recent matches and 61% of Sturm Graz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Rapid Vienna's matches and 64% of Sturm Graz's.
Do Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Rapid Vienna's recent matches and 79% of Sturm Graz's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sturm Graz cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Rapid Vienna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat Rapid Vienna 0-2 at Allianz Stadion, Championship Group - 25, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.34 xG and Sturm Graz 1.12 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Rapid Vienna fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Sturm Graz outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 0.98 / defence 0.87 against Sturm Graz attack 1.12 / defence 1.01, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 41% | Draw 29% | Sturm Graz 31%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Sturm Graz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 50%, Sturm Graz 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.46. That form edge translated into the three points. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.