Lask Linz 4-1 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Austria Vienna at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lask Linz face Austria Vienna.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lask Linz host Austria Vienna at Raiffeisen Arena in Bundesliga (Championship Group - 25). Kick-off is Sunday 5 April 2026 at 14:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Lask Linz — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Lask Linz's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Austria Vienna stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, Austria Vienna have posted 7W 0D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lask Linz at 1.60 PPG versus Austria Vienna's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Lask Linz have won 3, Austria Vienna 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.9 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 1 Mar 2026, ended Lask Linz 2–2 Austria Vienna — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.9 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Lask Linz in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Austria Vienna in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lask Linz 54% versus Austria Vienna 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 57% | Austria Vienna 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.42 xG and Austria Vienna 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 1.138 / defence 1.152 | Austria Vienna attack 1.232 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Austria Vienna have an above-average attack rating of 1.232, which lifts their away xG to 1.63. Data: built from Lask Linz's last 44 games and Austria Vienna's last 44.
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 33% | Draw 25% | Austria Vienna 42%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 3.03 | Draw 3.96 | Austria Vienna 2.39. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.42 / 1.63) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Austria Vienna are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Lask Linz's last 10 home games and Austria Vienna's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Lask Linz 40% (last 10 home games) | Austria Vienna 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Group - 25 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 April 2026 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 33% | Draw 25% | Austria Vienna 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Lask Linz 1.42 / Austria Vienna 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 1.138 / def 1.152 | Austria Vienna attack 1.232 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Austria Vienna xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna FAQs
What time does Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna kick off?
Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 5 April 2026 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna?
Lask Linz 4 - 1 Austria Vienna.
Where is Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna part of?
Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna is a Bundesliga fixture (Championship Group - 25) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 33% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Lask Linz and Austria Vienna will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lask Linz's attack at 1.14x the league average against Austria Vienna's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Vienna's attack versus Lask Linz's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lask Linz's last 44 games and Austria Vienna's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
33%
3.03
25%
3.96
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
3.05
1.63
Austria Vienna xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
20%
5.09
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
6%
15.46
10%
9.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.7 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.0 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.8 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Lask Linz and 1.63 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lask Linz come into this having played 56 games, going 28W 11D 17L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-L.
On the other side, Austria Vienna sit at 1.77 PPG from 56 outings (30W 9D 17L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lask Linz on 1.70 PPG, Austria Vienna on 1.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Lask Linz's home form reads 16W 6D 6L across their last 28 home games, a 1.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Austria Vienna have taken 1.75 points per game from their last 28 away games (15W 4D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Lask Linz are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.50 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Blended
Austria Vienna
Blended
Lask Linz (Home) vs Austria Vienna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lask Linz
Blended
Austria Vienna
Blended
❓ Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna Form FAQs
What form are Lask Linz and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 28W 11D 17L in their last 56 games (1.70 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 30W 9D 17L in their last 56 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or Austria Vienna away?
Lask Linz's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 1.93 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Lask Linz or Austria Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lask Linz have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Austria Vienna in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from May 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 9 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Lask Linz have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 5 Apr 2026, when Lask Linz won Lask Linz 4-1 Austria Vienna.
Lask Linz's record when hosting Austria Vienna specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Lask Linz
2
Draws
2
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Austria Vienna?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lask Linz have won 6, Austria Vienna have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and Austria Vienna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 August 2026: Austria Vienna 0-2 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and Austria Vienna?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lask Linz 46%, Austria Vienna 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Lask Linz) and 46% (Austria Vienna).
On the defensive side: Lask Linz keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Austria Vienna in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lask Linz and Austria Vienna matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Lask Linz's recent matches and 54% of Austria Vienna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lask Linz and Austria Vienna matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Lask Linz's recent games and 46% of Austria Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lask Linz and Austria Vienna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Lask Linz's recent matches and 68% of Austria Vienna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lask Linz run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Austria Vienna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz beat Austria Vienna 4-1 at Raiffeisen Arena, Championship Group - 25, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.42 xG and Austria Vienna 1.63 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Lask Linz beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 1.14 / defence 1.15 against Austria Vienna attack 1.23 / defence 0.93, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 33% | Draw 25% | Austria Vienna 42%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Lask Linz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 57%, Austria Vienna 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lask Linz 1.70 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lask Linz win broke the near-deadlock. Lask Linz (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.