Austria Vienna 1-0 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Austria Vienna at 39% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
TSV Hartberg travel to Generali Arena to take on Austria Vienna in Bundesliga (Championship Group - 30). The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 May 2026 at 14:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Austria Vienna have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Austria Vienna have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
TSV Hartberg — last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
TSV Hartberg away from home: 2W 7D 1L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Austria Vienna) versus 1.10 (TSV Hartberg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
Austria Vienna hold a clear advantage across the 8 H2H matches in our data, with 5 wins compared to 2 for TSV Hartberg and 1 draw.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Mar 2026, ended Austria Vienna 1–0 TSV Hartberg — a Austria Vienna win.
The head-to-head data gives Austria Vienna an edge — 5 wins from 8 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Data
Austria Vienna trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
TSV Hartberg trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Vienna 59% versus TSV Hartberg 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 57% | TSV Hartberg 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.26 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 1.068 / defence 1.008 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.973 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: built from Austria Vienna's last 44 games and TSV Hartberg's last 44.
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 39% | Draw 29% | TSV Hartberg 32%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 2.58 | Draw 3.44 | TSV Hartberg 3.11. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Austria Vienna as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Austria Vienna 5 wins from 8 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Austria Vienna 60% (last 10 home games) | TSV Hartberg 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Group - 30 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 39% | Draw 29% | TSV Hartberg 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Austria Vienna 1.26 / TSV Hartberg 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 1.068 / def 1.008 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.973 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.12
TSV Hartberg xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg FAQs
What time does Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 3 May 2026 at Generali Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Austria Vienna 1 - 0 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg is a Bundesliga fixture (Championship Group - 30) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 39% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Austria Vienna's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against TSV Hartberg's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Austria Vienna's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Austria Vienna's last 44 games and TSV Hartberg's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
39%
2.58
29%
3.44
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
2.39
1.12
TSV Hartberg xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
13%
7.94
9%
11.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.3 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.0 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 1.12 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Austria Vienna's recent record stands at 30W 11D 20L from 61 games, a 1.66 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five.
TSV Hartberg, meanwhile, have gone 20W 23D 18L across 61 games — 1.36 PPG, with L-D-D-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Austria Vienna on 1.66 PPG, TSV Hartberg on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Austria Vienna have managed 15W 6D 9L from their last 30 home games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
TSV Hartberg's away record stands at 10W 13D 7L across their last 30 away games, a 1.43 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.21 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Current Season
TSV Hartberg
Current Season
Austria Vienna (Home) vs TSV Hartberg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Austria Vienna
Current Season
TSV Hartberg
Current Season
❓ Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg Form FAQs
What form are Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 30W 11D 20L in their last 61 games (1.66 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 20W 23D 18L in their last 61 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Austria Vienna's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 1.70 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Austria Vienna or TSV Hartberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Austria Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, TSV Hartberg in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from February 2024. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 16 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Austria Vienna have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Austria Vienna's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Austria Vienna
1
Draws
2
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Austria Vienna have won 7, TSV Hartberg have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 August 2026: TSV Hartberg 0-2 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Vienna 60%, TSV Hartberg 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Austria Vienna) and 43% (TSV Hartberg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg in 43%; TSV Hartberg in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Austria Vienna's recent matches and 43% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Austria Vienna's matches and 43% of TSV Hartberg's.
Do Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Austria Vienna's recent matches and 60% of TSV Hartberg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Austria Vienna edge out TSV Hartberg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna beat TSV Hartberg 1-0 at Generali Arena, Championship Group - 30, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.26 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.12 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. TSV Hartberg landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 1.07 / defence 1.01 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.97 / defence 0.88, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 39% | Draw 29% | TSV Hartberg 32%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 57%, TSV Hartberg 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Vienna's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Vienna 1.66 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.