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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Stadion Hartberg plays host to TSV Hartberg versus Lask Linz in Bundesliga, Championship Group - 29. Kick-off: Sunday 26 April 2026 at 13:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

TSV Hartberg have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

TSV Hartberg's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Hartberg this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.

Lask Linz's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W W D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

Lask Linz away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

Lask Linz hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 9 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.

It is worth noting that Lask Linz have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading

TSV Hartberg half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Lask Linz half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 52% versus Lask Linz 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 44% | Lask Linz 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.21 xG and Lask Linz 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.892 / defence 0.881 | Lask Linz attack 1.120 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: 44 TSV Hartberg games / 44 Lask Linz games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 37% | Draw 30% | Lask Linz 33%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Lask Linz 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates TSV Hartberg as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: TSV Hartberg 50% | Lask Linz 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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