Austria Vienna 1-1 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Vienna at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Austria Vienna face Rapid Vienna.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Generali Arena plays host to Austria Vienna versus Rapid Vienna in Bundesliga (Championship Group - 26). Kick-off: Sunday 12 April 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Form
Austria Vienna (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Austria Vienna at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Rapid Vienna have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Rapid Vienna away from home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Austria Vienna against 1.50 for Rapid Vienna. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Rapid Vienna edge it 4 wins to 3, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.9 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 15 Feb 2026, ended Austria Vienna 2–0 Rapid Vienna — a Austria Vienna win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.9 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Austria Vienna half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Rapid Vienna half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Vienna 56% versus Rapid Vienna 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 58% | Rapid Vienna 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.44 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 1.076 / defence 1.009 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.887 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: built from Austria Vienna's last 44 games and Rapid Vienna's last 44.
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 46% | Draw 28% | Rapid Vienna 26%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 2.19 | Draw 3.57 | Rapid Vienna 3.82. Austria Vienna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Austria Vienna as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Austria Vienna 50% (last 10 home games) | Rapid Vienna 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Group - 26 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 April 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 46% | Draw 28% | Rapid Vienna 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Austria Vienna 1.44 / Rapid Vienna 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 1.076 / def 1.009 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.887 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Rapid Vienna xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna FAQs
What time does Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 12 April 2026 at Generali Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna?
Austria Vienna 1 - 1 Rapid Vienna.
Where is Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna part of?
Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna is a Bundesliga fixture (Championship Group - 26) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 46% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Austria Vienna's attack rating (1.08) and Rapid Vienna's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rapid Vienna's attack (0.89x) against Austria Vienna's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from Austria Vienna's last 44 games and Rapid Vienna's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
46%
2.19
28%
3.57
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
2.46
1.03
Rapid Vienna xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
16%
6.10
6%
16.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.6 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 1.03 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Austria Vienna's recent record stands at 30W 9D 18L from 57 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Rapid Vienna, meanwhile, have gone 23W 13D 21L across 57 games — 1.44 PPG, with D-W-W-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.74 PPG for Austria Vienna against 1.44 for Rapid Vienna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Austria Vienna have managed 15W 5D 8L from their last 28 home games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rapid Vienna's away record stands at 7W 9D 12L across their last 28 away games, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.33 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Blended
Rapid Vienna
Blended
Austria Vienna (Home) vs Rapid Vienna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Austria Vienna
Blended
Rapid Vienna
Blended
❓ Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna Form FAQs
What form are Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 30W 9D 18L in their last 57 games (1.74 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 23W 13D 21L in their last 57 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or Rapid Vienna away?
Austria Vienna's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 1.79 PPG; Rapid Vienna away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to February 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 1 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rapid Vienna won Rapid Vienna 3-0 Austria Vienna on 25 Feb 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Vienna have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Rapid Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Austria Vienna
1
Draws
5
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Austria Vienna have won 4, Rapid Vienna have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2026: Austria Vienna 0-2 Rapid Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna?
Rapid Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Vienna 57%, Rapid Vienna 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Austria Vienna) and 50% (Rapid Vienna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Austria Vienna's games and 68% of Rapid Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Austria Vienna's matches and 50% of Rapid Vienna's.
Do Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Austria Vienna's recent matches and 71% of Rapid Vienna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna finished level at 1-1 at Generali Arena, Championship Group - 26, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.44 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.03 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 1.08 / defence 1.01 against Rapid Vienna attack 0.89 / defence 0.99, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 46% | Draw 28% | Rapid Vienna 26%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 58%, Rapid Vienna 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Vienna's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Vienna 1.74 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.