Sturm Graz 4-1 FC BW Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sturm Graz vs FC BW Linz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 5 as Sturm Graz welcome FC BW Linz to Merkur Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 26 August 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Sturm Graz have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Sturm Graz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sturm Graz have posted 7W 1D 2L at Merkur Arena — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC BW Linz stand at 0W 1D 3L from 4 Bundesliga matches — 0.25 PPG. Last five: L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. FC BW Linz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, Sturm Graz have the edge — a 1.95 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.25) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Sturm Graz in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 100% of the time.
FC BW Linz in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Sturm Graz 0% | FC BW Linz 50%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 25% | FC BW Linz 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.52 xG and FC BW Linz 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 0.993 / defence 0.691 | FC BW Linz attack 0.714 / defence 1.284. League average goals — home 1.196 / away 1.382. FC BW Linz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.284 — this is suppressing Sturm Graz's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Sturm Graz's defence rating of 0.691 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 26 Sturm Graz games / 4 FC BW Linz games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 55% | Draw 31% | FC BW Linz 14%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 1.82 | Draw 3.23 | FC BW Linz 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Sturm Graz (55%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sturm Graz at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 31% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.4 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates are neutral: Sturm Graz 50% | FC BW Linz 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (4 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs FC BW Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Aug 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 55% | Draw 31% | FC BW Linz 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 41% | xG Sturm Graz 1.52 / FC BW Linz 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 0.993 / def 0.691 | FC BW Linz attack 0.714 / def 1.284 | league avg home 1.196 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
0.68
FC BW Linz xG
41%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs FC BW Linz kick off?
Sturm Graz vs FC BW Linz kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 26 August 2023 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs FC BW Linz?
Sturm Graz 4 - 1 FC BW Linz.
Where is Sturm Graz vs FC BW Linz being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs FC BW Linz part of?
Sturm Graz vs FC BW Linz is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs FC BW Linz?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 55% chance of winning, FC BW Linz a 14% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs FC BW Linz?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Sturm Graz and FC BW Linz will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs FC BW Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and FC BW Linz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sturm Graz and FC BW Linz in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. FC BW Linz (all comps): 0W-1D-3L in 4 | 0.25 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sturm Graz's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against FC BW Linz's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, FC BW Linz's attack versus Sturm Graz's defence, projects 0.68 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (26/4 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.9%), 2-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
55%
1.81
31%
3.26
14%
7.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
2.21
0.68
FC BW Linz xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
7.08
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
51%
1.98
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
28%
3.58
3%
32.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 7.5 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 11.4 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs FC BW Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and FC BW Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 0.68 for FC BW Linz, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs FC BW Linz?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 4 outings, Sturm Graz have picked up 2.50 PPG on a 3W 1D 0L record — W-W-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sturm Graz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC BW Linz's form line: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games, 0.25 PPG, last five L-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for FC BW Linz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Sturm Graz are the form team by 2.25 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC BW Linz.
The Goals Picture
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; FC BW Linz are on 1.00 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sturm Graz have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Early Season
FC BW Linz
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and FC BW Linz in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 3W 1D 0L in their last 4 games (2.50 PPG), while FC BW Linz have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 (0.25 PPG).
Have Sturm Graz or FC BW Linz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, FC BW Linz in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sturm Graz and FC BW Linz runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sturm Graz have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Aug 2023, when Sturm Graz won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sturm Graz's record when hosting FC BW Linz specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Sturm Graz
1
Draws
0
FC BW Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and FC BW Linz?
From 8 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 7, FC BW Linz have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and FC BW Linz last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Sturm Graz 1-0 FC BW Linz.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and FC BW Linz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Sturm Graz 0% BTTS, FC BW Linz 50%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Sturm Graz) and 75% (FC BW Linz).
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 100% of their matches; FC BW Linz in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / FC BW Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play FC BW Linz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Sturm Graz's recent matches and 50% of FC BW Linz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sturm Graz vs FC BW Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Sturm Graz's recent games and 75% of FC BW Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sturm Graz and FC BW Linz tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, FC BW Linz in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sturm Graz run riot with a 4-1 hammering of FC BW Linz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat FC BW Linz 4-1 at Merkur Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.52 xG and FC BW Linz 0.68 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Sturm Graz beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 0.99 / defence 0.69 against FC BW Linz attack 0.71 / defence 1.28, drawn from 26/4 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 55% | Draw 31% | FC BW Linz 14%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 25%, FC BW Linz 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 100% of the time, and conceded here.
FC BW Linz's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 0.25. That form edge translated into the three points. Sturm Graz scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC BW Linz shipped 4 against a 3.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.