Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-0 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Gimcheon Sangmu FC face Jeju United FC.

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Match Analysis

Gimcheon Sangmu FC host Jeju United FC at Gimcheon Stadium in K League 1 (matchday 13). Kick-off is Saturday 18 May 2024 at 12:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Gimcheon Sangmu FC — last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Gimcheon Sangmu FC's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 home games (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Jeju United FC have recorded 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Jeju United FC away from home: 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 0.70 PPG versus Jeju United FC's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's games and 60% of Jeju United FC's (from Gimcheon Sangmu FC's last 10 home games and Jeju United FC's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, 1 for Jeju United FC and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Apr 2024, ended Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2–0 Jeju United FC — a Gimcheon Sangmu FC win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Gimcheon Sangmu FC in-play and half-time data (last 40 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).

Jeju United FC in-play and half-time data (last 40 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 60% versus Jeju United FC 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 48% | Jeju United FC 48%). Note also that Jeju United FC surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Gimcheon Sangmu FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.39 xG and Jeju United FC 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.930 / defence 1.038 | Jeju United FC attack 0.846 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.493 / away 1.291. Data: built from Gimcheon Sangmu FC's last 12 games and Jeju United FC's last 45.

Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 42% | Draw 27% | Jeju United FC 30%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.35 | Draw 3.66 | Jeju United FC 3.31. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Gimcheon Sangmu FC are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gimcheon Sangmu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 60% (last 10 home games) | Jeju United FC 60% (last 10 away games).

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