Daejeon Citizen 0-1 Incheon United – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Daejeon Citizen at 48%, yet the head-to-head data favours Incheon United — this Daejeon Citizen vs Incheon United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

Daejeon Citizen welcome Incheon United to Daejeon World Cup Stadium in K League 1 (matchday 13). Kick-off is Saturday 18 May 2024 at 09:30 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Daejeon Citizen stand at 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Daejeon Citizen at home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Incheon United — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Incheon United have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Daejeon Citizen 1.40 PPG, Incheon United 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Daejeon Citizen's games and 60% of Incheon United's (from Daejeon Citizen's last 10 home games and Incheon United's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

Despite the home advantage, Incheon United have the better record in our head-to-head data — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches against 0 for Daejeon Citizen. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Mar 2024, ended Daejeon Citizen 0–2 Incheon United — a Incheon United win.

Incheon United have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.

Trading Patterns

Daejeon Citizen in-play and half-time data (last 40 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Incheon United in-play and half-time data (last 40 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daejeon Citizen 62% versus Incheon United 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daejeon Citizen 55% | Incheon United 38%). Note also that Incheon United surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while Daejeon Citizen recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Daejeon Citizen 1.60 xG and Incheon United 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daejeon Citizen attack 1.001 / defence 0.792 | Incheon United attack 1.056 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.292. Daejeon Citizen have a tight defence (rating 0.792), which is pulling Incheon United's projected output down. Data: built from Daejeon Citizen's last 45 games and Incheon United's last 45.

Result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 48% | Draw 27% | Incheon United 25%. Fair-value odds: Daejeon Citizen 2.07 | Draw 3.70 | Incheon United 4.06. Daejeon Citizen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Daejeon Citizen at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daejeon Citizen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Daejeon Citizen 60% (last 10 home games) | Incheon United 60% (last 10 away games).

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