Gangwon FC 1-0 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gangwon FC at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 13 as Gangwon FC welcome Ulsan Hyundai FC to Chuncheon Songam Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 19 May 2024 at 08:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gangwon FC stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Chuncheon Songam Stadium, Gangwon FC have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Gangwon FC 1.40 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Gangwon FC, 1 for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2024, ended 0–4 with Ulsan Hyundai FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Gangwon FC in-play and half-time data (76 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play and half-time data (76 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gangwon FC 54% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gangwon FC 38% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gangwon FC 1.94 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gangwon FC attack 1.353 / defence 1.230 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.034 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.271. Gangwon FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.353 — their λ of 1.94 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 45 Gangwon FC games / 45 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gangwon FC 46% | Draw 22% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 32%. Fair-value odds: Gangwon FC 2.17 | Draw 4.55 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 3.12. Gangwon FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.7 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 69% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gangwon FC at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gangwon FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.55 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Gangwon FC 80% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Chuncheon Songam Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gangwon FC 46% | Draw 22% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG Gangwon FC 1.94 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Gangwon FC attack 1.353 / def 1.230 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.034 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: Gangwon FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Gangwon FC xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 08:30 on Sunday 19 May 2024 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What was the final score in Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Gangwon FC 1 - 0 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What competition is Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Gangwon FC a 46% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 32% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Gangwon FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Record (2 meetings): Gangwon FC 1W | Draws 0 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 1W.
What form are Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Gangwon FC (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Gangwon FC's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.94. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus Gangwon FC's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gangwon FC Win
46%
2.20
22%
4.55
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Gangwon FC xG
Total xG
3.55
1.62
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
2.20
46%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.19
Clean Sheet
20%
5.04
14%
6.94
Win to Nil
9%
11.07
5%
21.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 9.0 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Gangwon FC and 1.62 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 3.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 76 outings, Gangwon FC have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 20W 23D 33L record — W-W-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's form line: 45W 17D 14L from 76 games, 2.00 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the form team by 0.91 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gangwon FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Gangwon FC have posted 1.19 PPG from 37 outings (11W 11D 15L).
On the road, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 19W 9D 9L from 37 away games — 1.78 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gangwon FC are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.58 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gangwon FC
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Gangwon FC have gone 20W 23D 33L in their last 76 games (1.09 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 45W 17D 14L in their last 76 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gangwon FC at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gangwon FC at home: 1.19 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.78 PPG.
Have Gangwon FC or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gangwon FC have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2024, when Ulsan Hyundai FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gangwon FC's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Gangwon FC
2
Draws
4
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gangwon FC have won 4, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Gangwon FC 2-0 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gangwon FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gangwon FC 62%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Gangwon FC) and 49% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gangwon FC home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gangwon FC play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Gangwon FC's games and 54% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Gangwon FC's recent games and 49% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
Gangwon FC have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gangwon FC edge out Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gangwon FC beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-0 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 1.94 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.62 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Gangwon FC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Ulsan Hyundai FC landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 1.35 / defence 1.23 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.03 / defence 0.96, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 46% | Draw 22% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 32%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gangwon FC 38%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gangwon FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.09. Form was overturned, with Gangwon FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.