Jeonbuk Motors 0-0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 42%, yet in-form Jeonbuk Motors provide a compelling counter-argument — this Jeonbuk Motors vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jeonju World Cup Stadium plays host to Jeonbuk Motors versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 25 May 2024 at 06:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jeonbuk Motors have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Jeonbuk Motors at Jeonju World Cup Stadium this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Gimcheon Sangmu FC haven't played a K League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Jeonbuk Motors's favour (1.50 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Jeonbuk Motors have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Jeonbuk Motors 0W, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Mar 2024, ended 0–1 with Gimcheon Sangmu FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Jeonbuk Motors goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Gimcheon Sangmu FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeonbuk Motors 48% versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeonbuk Motors 35% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 1.53 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.118 / defence 1.334 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.024 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.434 / away 1.252. Data: 46 Jeonbuk Motors games / 13 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 35% | Draw 23% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 42%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 2.86 | Draw 4.35 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Jeonbuk Motors (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gimcheon Sangmu FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jeonbuk Motors 60% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Jeonju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 May 2024, 06:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 35% | Draw 23% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Jeonbuk Motors 1.53 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.118 / def 1.334 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.024 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.434 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Gimcheon Sangmu FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeonbuk Motors vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kicked off at 06:00 on Saturday 25 May 2024 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Jeonbuk Motors 0 - 0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Where is Jeonbuk Motors vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeonbuk Motors vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeonbuk Motors vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 35% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 42% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Gimcheon Sangmu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Jeonbuk Motors and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeonbuk Motors vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Record (2 meetings): Jeonbuk Motors 0W | Draws 1 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1W.
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in?
Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Jeonbuk Motors's attack rating (1.12) and Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack (1.02x) against Jeonbuk Motors's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.71.
These ratings are built from 46/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gimcheon Sangmu FC Win
35%
2.88
23%
4.32
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Total xG
3.25
1.71
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
2.88
35%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
18%
5.53
22%
4.64
Win to Nil
6%
15.95
9%
11.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.7 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.2 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.8 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeonbuk Motors vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Jeonbuk Motors and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 1.71 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeonbuk Motors vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 40 outings, Jeonbuk Motors have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 18W 9D 13L record — W-D-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's form line: 8W 14D 18L from 40 games, 0.95 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-L. Gimcheon Sangmu FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Jeonbuk Motors are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Jeonbuk Motors have posted 1.85 PPG from 20 outings (11W 4D 5L).
On the road, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 3W 9D 8L from 20 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeonbuk Motors come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jeonbuk Motors are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Gimcheon Sangmu FC are on 1.15 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 60%.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in coming into this match?
Jeonbuk Motors have gone 18W 9D 13L in their last 40 games (1.58 PPG), while Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 8W 14D 18L in their last 40 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeonbuk Motors at home or Gimcheon Sangmu FC away?
Jeonbuk Motors's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeonbuk Motors at home: 1.85 PPG; Gimcheon Sangmu FC away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Jeonbuk Motors or Gimcheon Sangmu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 4-0 on 14 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jeonbuk Motors have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gimcheon Sangmu FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Jeonbuk Motors
3
Draws
4
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeonbuk Motors have won 3, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jeonbuk Motors and Gimcheon Sangmu FC last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Jeonbuk Motors 1-0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeonbuk Motors and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jeonbuk Motors are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeonbuk Motors 55%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Jeonbuk Motors) and 50% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC).
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeonbuk Motors home games / Gimcheon Sangmu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeonbuk Motors play Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Jeonbuk Motors's games and 65% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jeonbuk Motors vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent games and 50% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeonbuk Motors and Gimcheon Sangmu FC tend to score early?
Jeonbuk Motors have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Jeonbuk Motors's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 14, as Jeonbuk Motors and Gimcheon Sangmu FC drew 0-0 in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.53 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.71 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Jeonbuk Motors fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Gimcheon Sangmu FC landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.12 / defence 1.33 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.02 / defence 0.96, drawn from 46/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 35% | Draw 23% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 42%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 35%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Jeonbuk Motors arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.