Al Okhdood 1-3 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Okhdood vs Al-Fateh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium plays host to Al Okhdood versus Al-Fateh in Pro League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Friday 18 August 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Okhdood have collected 1.00 PPG across 1 Pro League outings this season: 0W 1D 0L. Last five: D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Al Okhdood have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fateh (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Fateh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fateh away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Al Okhdood against 1.20 for Al-Fateh. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 1.23 xG and Al-Fateh 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.867 / defence 1.150 | Al-Fateh attack 1.032 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.358. Data: 1 Al Okhdood games / 31 Al-Fateh games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 29% | Draw 25% | Al-Fateh 46%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 3.45 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Fateh 2.17. Al-Fateh hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fateh at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Okhdood vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 18 Aug 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Okhdood 29% | Draw 25% | Al-Fateh 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Al Okhdood 1.23 / Al-Fateh 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Al Okhdood attack 0.867 / def 1.150 | Al-Fateh attack 1.032 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Al Okhdood xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Al-Fateh xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Okhdood vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al Okhdood vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 18 August 2023 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Okhdood vs Al-Fateh?
Al Okhdood 1 - 3 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al Okhdood vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Okhdood vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al Okhdood vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Okhdood vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al Okhdood a 29% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 46% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Okhdood vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al Okhdood and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al Okhdood vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al-Fateh?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Okhdood and Al-Fateh in?
Al Okhdood (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D. Al-Fateh (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al Okhdood's attack rating (0.87) and Al-Fateh's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Fateh's attack (1.03x) against Al Okhdood's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
The sample (1/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
29%
3.43
25%
4.07
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Al Okhdood xG
Total xG
2.84
1.61
Al-Fateh xG
3.43
29%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
20%
5.01
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
6%
17.21
14%
7.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.4 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.6 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Okhdood vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Al Okhdood and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Al Okhdood and 1.61 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Okhdood vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Okhdood come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 1D 0L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D. It's still early in the season for Al Okhdood, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Fateh sit at 1.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 1D 0L), a run that reads D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fateh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Al Okhdood against 1.00 for Al-Fateh. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Al Okhdood are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al Okhdood have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Al-Fateh in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Okhdood
Early Season
Al-Fateh
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Okhdood and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al Okhdood have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Okhdood have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al Okhdood
1
Draws
3
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al-Fateh?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Okhdood have won 2, Al-Fateh have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Okhdood and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Al Okhdood 1-0 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al Okhdood and Al-Fateh?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Okhdood home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Okhdood play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Al Okhdood's games and 100% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Okhdood vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Al Okhdood's recent games and 0% of Al-Fateh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Okhdood and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al Okhdood have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fateh cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al Okhdood.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh beat Al Okhdood 1-3 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 1.23 xG and Al-Fateh 1.61 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al-Fateh outscored their 1.61 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Al-Fateh attack 1.03 / defence 1.00, drawn from 1/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 29% | Draw 25% | Al-Fateh 46%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 0%, Al-Fateh 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Okhdood 1.00 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fateh win broke the near-deadlock. Al Okhdood shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Fateh scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.