Al-Nassr 0-2 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Nassr host Al Taawon at Al Awal Park at King Saud University in Pro League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 18 August 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Nassr stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Al-Nassr have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Nassr's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at Al Awal Park at King Saud University this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Al-Nassr are significantly better at Al Awal Park at King Saud University than their overall form suggests.
Al Taawon — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al Taawon have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Taawon have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Nassr at 1.80 PPG versus Al Taawon's 2.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Nassr register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al Taawon in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Al-Nassr have won 3, Al Taawon 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2023, ended 2–1 with Al-Nassr winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al-Nassr in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
Al Taawon in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 39% versus Al Taawon 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 58% | Al Taawon 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 1.50 xG and Al Taawon 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.228 / defence 0.867 | Al Taawon attack 0.993 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.399. Data: 31 Al-Nassr games / 31 Al Taawon games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 44% | Draw 25% | Al Taawon 31%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Al Taawon 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Nassr are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Nassr 60% | Al Taawon 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Al Awal Park at King Saud University • Kick-off: Friday 18 Aug 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 44% | Draw 25% | Al Taawon 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Al-Nassr 1.50 / Al Taawon 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.228 / def 0.867 | Al Taawon attack 0.993 / def 0.868 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Al Taawon xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 18 August 2023 at Al Awal Park at King Saud University.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon?
Al-Nassr 0 - 2 Al Taawon.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Al Awal Park at King Saud University.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 44% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al Taawon?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Nassr 3W | Draws 0 | Al Taawon 1W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al Taawon in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Al Taawon (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Nassr's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Al Taawon's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taawon's attack versus Al-Nassr's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
44%
2.27
25%
3.92
31%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
2.70
1.20
Al Taawon xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
3.28
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
13%
7.58
7%
14.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.1 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 1.20 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Nassr come into this having played 31 games, going 20W 7D 4L for 2.16 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Al-Nassr, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Taawon sit at 1.81 PPG from 31 outings (16W 8D 7L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Taawon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Nassr on 2.16 PPG, Al Taawon on 1.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Nassr's home form reads 12W 3D 0L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.60 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.16 PPG overall — Al-Nassr are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al Taawon have taken 1.87 points per game from 15 outings (8W 4D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 0.65 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.52 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon in 68%.
Defensively: Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Early Season
Al Taawon
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 20W 7D 4L in their last 31 games (2.16 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 16W 8D 7L in their last 31 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al Taawon away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.60 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.87 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al Taawon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Al Taawon in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Nassr and Al Taawon runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Nassr go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2025, when Al-Nassr won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Nassr's record when hosting Al Taawon specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Al-Nassr
2
Draws
2
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al Taawon?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 6, Al Taawon have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when Al-Nassr 1-0 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al Taawon?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 53%, Al Taawon 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Al-Nassr and 53% for Al Taawon. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 13% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al Taawon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Al-Nassr's games and 67% of Al Taawon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al-Nassr's matches and 53% of Al Taawon's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Taawon cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al-Nassr.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon beat Al-Nassr 0-2 at Al Awal Park at King Saud University, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 1.50 xG and Al Taawon 1.20 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al-Nassr fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.23 / defence 0.87 against Al Taawon attack 0.99 / defence 0.87, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 44% | Draw 25% | Al Taawon 31%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Al Taawon win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 58%, Al Taawon 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Taawon's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Nassr 2.16 PPG, Al Taawon 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Taawon win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Taawon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.