Al-Nassr 0-2 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Nassr at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Nassr face Al Taawon.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Nassr host Al Taawon at Al Awal Park at King Saud University in Pro League (matchday 2). Kick-off is Friday 18 August 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Nassr stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Al-Nassr's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Al-Nassr are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Al Taawon — last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Al Taawon have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Nassr at 1.80 PPG versus Al Taawon's 2.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Al-Nassr's games and 70% of Al Taawon's (from Al-Nassr's last 10 home games and Al Taawon's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Al-Nassr, 1 for Al Taawon and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 17 Feb 2023, ended Al-Nassr 2–1 Al Taawon — a Al-Nassr win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Al-Nassr in-play tendencies (last 31 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 83%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
Al Taawon in-play tendencies (last 31 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 39% versus Al Taawon 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 58% | Al Taawon 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 1.50 xG and Al Taawon 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.228 / defence 0.867 | Al Taawon attack 0.993 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.399. Data: built from Al-Nassr's last 31 games and Al Taawon's last 31. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 44% | Draw 25% | Al Taawon 31%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 2.27 | Draw 3.92 | Al Taawon 3.28. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Nassr are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Nassr's last 10 home games and Al Taawon's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Nassr 60% (last 10 home games) | Al Taawon 70% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Al-Nassr 31 games, Al Taawon 31) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, matchday 2 | Venue: Al Awal Park at King Saud University • Kick-off: Friday 18 August 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 44% | Draw 25% | Al Taawon 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Al-Nassr 1.50 / Al Taawon 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.228 / def 0.867 | Al Taawon attack 0.993 / def 0.868 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Al Taawon xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon FAQs
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 18 August 2023 at Al Awal Park at King Saud University.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon?
Al-Nassr 0 - 2 Al Taawon.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Al Awal Park at King Saud University.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon is a Pro League fixture (matchday 2) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 44% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al Taawon will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Nassr's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Al Taawon's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taawon's attack versus Al-Nassr's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Nassr's last 31 games and Al Taawon's last 31, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
44%
2.27
25%
3.92
31%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
2.70
1.20
Al Taawon xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
3.28
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
13%
7.58
7%
14.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.1 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 1.20 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Nassr come into this having played 31 games, going 20W 7D 4L for 2.16 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, Al Taawon sit at 1.81 PPG from 31 outings (16W 8D 7L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Nassr on 2.16 PPG, Al Taawon on 1.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Nassr's home form reads 12W 3D 0L across their last 15 home games, a 2.60 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.16 PPG overall — Al-Nassr are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al Taawon have taken 1.87 points per game from their last 15 away games (8W 4D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 0.65 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.52 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon in 68%.
Defensively: Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Early Season
Al Taawon
Early Season
Al-Nassr (Home) vs Al Taawon (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Nassr
Early Season
Al Taawon
Early Season
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon Form FAQs
What form are Al-Nassr and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 20W 7D 4L in their last 31 games (2.16 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 16W 8D 7L in their last 31 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al Taawon away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.60 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.87 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al Taawon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Al Taawon in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to January 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 28 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Nassr have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 Aug 2025, when Al-Nassr won Al Taawon 0-5 Al-Nassr.
Al-Nassr's record when hosting Al Taawon specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Al-Nassr
2
Draws
2
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al Taawon?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Nassr have won 6, Al Taawon have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al Taawon last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 August 2026: Al-Nassr 2-1 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al Taawon?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 53%, Al Taawon 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Al-Nassr and 53% for Al Taawon. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 13% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Nassr and Al Taawon matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Al-Nassr's games and 67% of Al Taawon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al-Nassr and Al Taawon matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al-Nassr's matches and 53% of Al Taawon's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al Taawon matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 87% of Al-Nassr's recent matches and 67% of Al Taawon's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Taawon cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al-Nassr.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon beat Al-Nassr 0-2 at Al Awal Park at King Saud University, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 1.50 xG and Al Taawon 1.20 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al-Nassr fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.23 / defence 0.87 against Al Taawon attack 0.99 / defence 0.87, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 44% | Draw 25% | Al Taawon 31%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Al Taawon win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 58%, Al Taawon 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Taawon's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Nassr 2.16 PPG, Al Taawon 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Taawon win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Taawon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.