📊

Brier score — lower is better. A perfectly calibrated model scores 0.0; a random coin-flip model scores 0.667 (3-way) or 0.250 (binary markets).

Accuracy — percentage of fixtures where the outcome with the highest predicted probability was correct. Random baseline: ~33% (3-way), ~50% (binary). O1.5/O3.5 show — until 20+ snapshots with those probabilities exist.

League	Season	n	Result BS	Result %	BTTS BS	BTTS %	O2.5 BS	O2.5 %	O1.5 BS	O1.5 %	O3.5 BS	O3.5 %
2. Bundesliga Germany	2026	87	0.665	40.2%	0.253	55.2%	0.266	51.7%	0.189	77.0%	0.231	64.4%
2. Bundesliga Germany	2025	306	0.641	45.8%	0.250	53.9%	0.257	50.7%	0.166	80.4%	0.221	67.3%
2. Bundesliga Germany	2024	306	0.651	44.8%	0.245	55.9%	0.247	56.2%	0.164	79.7%	0.238	61.4%
2. Bundesliga Germany	2023	306	0.629	47.1%	0.245	58.8%	0.254	53.6%	0.147	82.7%	0.244	61.1%
2. Bundesliga Germany	2022	306	0.632	47.4%	0.251	51.0%	0.252	58.2%	0.174	78.1%	0.224	65.4%
2. Bundesliga Germany	2021	305	0.662	39.0%	0.250	50.5%	0.257	51.1%	0.143	83.9%	0.223	67.2%
Allsvenskan Sweden	2026	208	0.635	45.2%	0.256	53.8%	0.246	57.2%	0.165	79.8%	0.209	68.8%
Allsvenskan Sweden	2025	240	0.615	48.8%	0.255	50.0%	0.255	53.3%	0.177	77.9%	0.220	69.2%
Allsvenskan Sweden	2024	240	0.635	48.3%	0.253	51.2%	0.256	52.1%	0.176	77.9%	0.213	68.3%
Allsvenskan Sweden	2023	240	0.605	50.0%	0.255	49.2%	0.255	49.6%	0.179	76.2%	0.213	69.6%
Allsvenskan Sweden	2022	240	0.626	50.4%	0.247	53.8%	0.244	57.1%	0.171	76.7%	0.204	71.2%
Allsvenskan Sweden	2021	240	0.626	49.2%	0.253	52.5%	0.242	58.8%	0.194	74.6%	0.198	71.7%
Allsvenskan Sweden	2020	239	0.673	38.5%	0.242	57.3%	0.255	55.6%	0.186	77.0%	0.228	65.3%
Bundesliga Austria	2026	63	0.609	47.6%	0.250	54.0%	0.245	54.0%	0.126	87.3%	0.236	65.1%
Bundesliga Germany	2026	70	0.619	48.6%	0.248	60.0%	0.210	72.9%	0.163	80.0%	0.266	45.7%
Bundesliga Austria	2025	132	0.676	38.6%	0.258	50.0%	0.263	43.9%	0.187	77.3%	0.217	72.0%
Bundesliga Germany	2025	306	0.605	52.9%	0.248	57.5%	0.238	59.8%	0.143	83.7%	0.253	55.6%
Bundesliga Germany	2024	306	0.635	47.4%	0.244	59.5%	0.240	62.7%	0.158	80.7%	0.250	55.2%
Bundesliga Austria	2024	132	0.631	48.5%	0.256	50.0%	0.253	48.5%	0.170	79.5%	0.198	72.7%
Bundesliga Austria	2023	132	0.626	50.0%	0.265	40.9%	0.271	49.2%	0.211	72.0%	0.202	72.7%
Bundesliga Germany	2023	306	0.591	52.3%	0.233	62.7%	0.232	64.7%	0.130	85.0%	0.245	57.8%
Bundesliga Austria	2022	132	0.609	53.8%	0.249	53.0%	0.243	56.1%	0.174	79.5%	0.221	66.7%
Bundesliga Germany	2022	306	0.632	48.4%	0.248	57.5%	0.253	59.2%	0.136	84.6%	0.247	57.2%
Bundesliga Germany	2021	306	0.606	51.3%	0.242	57.2%	0.241	57.8%	0.144	83.3%	0.241	60.5%
Bundesliga Austria	2021	131	0.648	41.2%	0.257	51.1%	0.276	45.8%	0.171	80.9%	0.226	64.9%
Bundesliga Germany	2020	305	0.656	44.9%	0.239	59.3%	0.240	57.4%	0.147	82.0%	0.226	63.6%
Canadian Premier League Canada	2025	112	0.621	44.6%	0.254	50.9%	0.261	49.1%	0.165	81.2%	0.259	58.9%
Canadian Premier League Canada	2024	112	0.664	43.8%	0.254	56.2%	0.261	42.9%	0.170	78.6%	0.171	79.5%
Canadian Premier League Canada	2023	112	0.661	42.9%	0.257	48.2%	0.260	56.2%	0.212	74.1%	0.190	76.8%
Canadian Premier League Canada	2022	112	0.651	43.8%	0.248	59.8%	0.262	46.4%	0.231	65.2%	0.201	74.1%
Canadian Premier League Canada	2021	111	0.689	34.2%	0.270	45.9%	0.276	50.5%	0.214	70.3%	0.185	75.7%
Challenger Pro League Belgium	2026	59	0.642	47.5%	0.256	49.2%	0.251	50.8%	0.179	78.0%	0.224	62.7%
Challenger Pro League Belgium	2025	271	0.617	47.6%	0.253	55.0%	0.259	51.3%	0.183	76.4%	0.234	65.3%
Challenger Pro League Belgium	2024	224	0.639	48.2%	0.257	56.2%	0.257	53.6%	0.195	75.4%	0.241	61.6%
Challenger Pro League Belgium	2023	240	0.628	47.9%	0.243	56.7%	0.256	50.8%	0.178	77.5%	0.226	64.6%
Challenger Pro League Belgium	2022	132	0.624	52.3%	0.242	59.8%	0.234	62.1%	0.156	81.8%	0.249	59.1%
Challenger Pro League Belgium	2021	111	0.679	34.2%	0.255	55.9%	0.266	46.8%	0.156	82.9%	0.221	68.5%
Championship England	2026	156	0.641	44.2%	0.249	57.1%	0.262	46.2%	0.185	76.9%	0.249	60.3%
Championship England	2025	552	0.652	42.2%	0.253	51.4%	0.259	52.0%	0.188	76.4%	0.191	74.8%
Championship England	2024	552	0.630	46.4%	0.250	55.8%	0.249	56.5%	0.205	70.7%	0.173	78.1%
Championship England	2023	552	0.651	42.0%	0.247	52.5%	0.249	55.4%	0.193	74.8%	0.206	71.2%
Championship England	2022	552	0.653	42.9%	0.257	48.9%	0.253	52.9%	0.217	69.0%	0.179	77.4%
Championship England	2021	551	0.649	43.0%	0.253	51.2%	0.255	54.1%	0.210	70.8%	0.186	76.2%
Czech Liga Czech-Republic	2026	99	0.617	49.5%	0.263	46.5%	0.264	48.5%	0.173	78.8%	0.213	71.7%
Czech Liga Czech-Republic	2025	240	0.639	46.2%	0.251	55.4%	0.245	55.4%	0.190	74.2%	0.196	73.3%
Czech Liga Czech-Republic	2024	240	0.571	56.2%	0.252	51.2%	0.257	50.8%	0.204	72.9%	0.199	72.9%
Czech Liga Czech-Republic	2023	240	0.606	51.7%	0.255	48.8%	0.255	51.7%	0.190	75.4%	0.229	66.7%
Czech Liga Czech-Republic	2022	240	0.618	47.5%	0.254	54.6%	0.249	55.0%	0.130	85.4%	0.233	65.4%
Czech Liga Czech-Republic	2021	237	0.594	50.6%	0.258	47.7%	0.259	52.3%	0.206	73.0%	0.218	67.9%
Eerste Divisie Netherlands	2026	125	0.633	45.6%	0.217	70.4%	0.230	64.0%	0.122	86.4%	0.253	53.6%
Eerste Divisie Netherlands	2025	380	0.646	45.0%	0.246	57.9%	0.245	58.9%	0.151	82.1%	0.255	56.3%
Eerste Divisie Netherlands	2024	380	0.615	49.5%	0.247	56.8%	0.246	55.3%	0.159	80.3%	0.243	61.6%
Eerste Divisie Netherlands	2023	380	0.619	49.7%	0.240	57.9%	0.242	59.5%	0.146	82.4%	0.232	62.6%
Eerste Divisie Netherlands	2022	380	0.635	44.7%	0.249	53.4%	0.250	58.7%	0.164	79.7%	0.242	59.2%
Eerste Divisie Netherlands	2021	375	0.623	48.5%	0.254	49.9%	0.263	52.0%	0.173	78.9%	0.243	61.6%
Ekstraklasa Poland	2026	112	0.617	45.5%	0.243	58.9%	0.252	53.6%	0.149	83.0%	0.236	64.3%
Ekstraklasa Poland	2025	306	0.665	43.5%	0.248	52.6%	0.249	55.2%	0.180	75.8%	0.211	69.9%
Ekstraklasa Poland	2024	306	0.657	42.8%	0.254	51.3%	0.258	51.6%	0.190	76.1%	0.215	69.3%
Ekstraklasa Poland	2023	306	0.647	43.1%	0.262	50.0%	0.257	52.6%	0.183	75.8%	0.213	69.3%
Ekstraklasa Poland	2022	306	0.639	44.1%	0.257	49.7%	0.251	57.2%	0.204	71.9%	0.180	77.5%
Ekstraklasa Poland	2021	305	0.640	46.6%	0.262	48.2%	0.259	50.2%	0.205	73.8%	0.218	70.2%
Eliteserien Norway	2026	195	0.596	52.8%	0.236	61.0%	0.234	60.0%	0.120	87.2%	0.237	62.1%
Eliteserien Norway	2025	239	0.572	55.6%	0.253	55.6%	0.249	55.6%	0.158	82.0%	0.260	56.9%
Eliteserien Norway	2024	240	0.647	43.3%	0.253	49.2%	0.248	55.4%	0.191	74.6%	0.224	67.5%
Eliteserien Norway	2023	240	0.604	52.9%	0.249	53.3%	0.250	51.7%	0.167	79.2%	0.239	60.8%
Eliteserien Norway	2022	240	0.609	48.3%	0.240	55.8%	0.236	59.6%	0.148	82.5%	0.242	58.3%
Eliteserien Norway	2021	240	0.643	47.5%	0.241	58.3%	0.244	57.5%	0.136	84.6%	0.234	61.3%
Eliteserien Norway	2020	235	0.607	48.5%	0.244	58.3%	0.242	56.2%	0.148	82.6%	0.236	61.7%
Eredivisie Netherlands	2026	95	0.623	52.6%	0.214	68.4%	0.216	71.6%	0.092	89.5%	0.286	41.1%
Eredivisie Netherlands	2025	306	0.617	48.0%	0.229	62.1%	0.233	60.8%	0.119	86.6%	0.232	64.7%
Eredivisie Netherlands	2024	306	0.585	53.6%	0.248	57.5%	0.254	54.2%	0.154	81.0%	0.230	63.7%
Eredivisie Netherlands	2023	306	0.570	53.6%	0.256	53.6%	0.235	62.1%	0.130	85.3%	0.247	59.8%
Eredivisie Netherlands	2022	306	0.565	56.9%	0.254	52.3%	0.251	55.9%	0.171	78.8%	0.246	60.1%
Eredivisie Netherlands	2021	305	0.604	51.1%	0.246	55.1%	0.249	58.4%	0.188	75.4%	0.220	66.6%
Jupiler Pro League Belgium	2026	85	0.578	62.4%	0.261	49.4%	0.250	54.1%	0.160	81.2%	0.241	65.9%
Jupiler Pro League Belgium	2025	240	0.650	42.1%	0.252	52.1%	0.251	54.2%	0.194	73.8%	0.199	74.2%
Jupiler Pro League Belgium	2024	240	0.632	45.4%	0.250	52.1%	0.251	55.8%	0.181	75.4%	0.201	71.7%
Jupiler Pro League Belgium	2023	240	0.613	45.4%	0.247	57.1%	0.250	51.2%	0.175	77.1%	0.230	65.8%
Jupiler Pro League Belgium	2022	304	0.609	50.7%	0.249	53.3%	0.250	53.0%	0.159	80.9%	0.236	63.8%
Jupiler Pro League Belgium	2021	305	0.613	48.5%	0.253	55.4%	0.261	53.8%	0.159	80.7%	0.236	61.3%
K League 1 South-Korea	2026	198	0.661	43.4%	0.253	49.5%	0.251	52.0%	0.210	71.7%	0.191	74.7%
K League 1 South-Korea	2025	198	0.670	37.9%	0.255	51.0%	0.255	50.0%	0.202	72.2%	0.205	72.2%
K League 1 South-Korea	2024	198	0.666	38.9%	0.259	49.0%	0.260	54.0%	0.210	72.7%	0.211	71.7%
K League 1 South-Korea	2023	198	0.668	37.4%	0.254	52.0%	0.257	53.5%	0.206	73.2%	0.197	74.2%
K League 1 South-Korea	2022	198	0.659	43.9%	0.266	44.9%	0.256	52.0%	0.219	70.7%	0.207	72.7%
K League 1 South-Korea	2021	197	0.683	36.0%	0.274	44.7%	0.273	51.8%	0.240	62.9%	0.191	76.1%
La Liga Spain	2026	104	0.584	51.9%	0.247	57.7%	0.240	59.6%	0.177	76.0%	0.228	64.4%
La Liga Spain	2025	380	0.599	50.3%	0.252	52.4%	0.243	56.3%	0.168	77.9%	0.190	73.4%
La Liga Spain	2024	380	0.604	48.7%	0.248	55.5%	0.243	59.5%	0.198	71.3%	0.174	75.0%
La Liga Spain	2023	380	0.597	49.2%	0.252	50.3%	0.251	56.3%	0.209	71.6%	0.200	71.3%
La Liga Spain	2022	380	0.619	50.5%	0.250	53.9%	0.257	52.9%	0.210	70.5%	0.179	77.4%
La Liga Spain	2021	379	0.628	46.7%	0.262	49.6%	0.248	58.0%	0.217	66.5%	0.197	74.1%
League One England	2026	154	0.686	33.8%	0.247	55.8%	0.259	53.9%	0.167	79.9%	0.218	67.5%
League One England	2025	552	0.642	45.1%	0.254	50.4%	0.257	53.1%	0.200	73.0%	0.203	72.1%
League One England	2024	552	0.641	47.3%	0.249	54.2%	0.254	51.8%	0.199	71.7%	0.185	75.2%
League One England	2023	552	0.638	46.6%	0.251	53.8%	0.256	54.9%	0.193	73.6%	0.187	75.2%
League One England	2022	552	0.626	46.2%	0.258	47.3%	0.262	51.4%	0.206	72.8%	0.194	75.0%
League One England	2021	541	0.627	46.0%	0.255	50.6%	0.259	51.9%	0.191	75.4%	0.206	71.5%
League Two England	2026	163	0.640	44.2%	0.249	55.2%	0.256	51.5%	0.181	75.5%	0.222	68.7%
League Two England	2025	552	0.645	44.9%	0.255	49.3%	0.264	46.9%	0.206	72.3%	0.205	72.8%
League Two England	2024	552	0.663	40.2%	0.260	50.5%	0.257	49.8%	0.216	69.9%	0.186	75.9%
League Two England	2023	552	0.650	43.7%	0.244	57.4%	0.247	54.7%	0.165	79.5%	0.227	65.4%
League Two England	2022	552	0.655	42.0%	0.258	48.9%	0.253	57.6%	0.225	67.9%	0.166	80.1%
League Two England	2021	540	0.650	43.0%	0.256	52.4%	0.264	52.6%	0.208	71.3%	0.189	76.3%
Ligue 1 France	2026	76	0.627	47.4%	0.246	55.3%	0.235	55.3%	0.168	78.9%	0.228	63.2%
Ligue 1 France	2025	305	0.621	49.5%	0.266	45.2%	0.264	48.9%	0.213	72.8%	0.226	66.2%
Ligue 1 France	2024	306	0.584	54.6%	0.244	56.5%	0.242	57.5%	0.143	82.4%	0.231	64.4%
Ligue 1 France	2023	306	0.638	45.1%	0.258	51.0%	0.264	49.7%	0.191	74.8%	0.206	71.2%
Ligue 1 France	2022	380	0.594	51.1%	0.249	53.4%	0.252	55.5%	0.174	77.9%	0.215	68.9%
Ligue 1 France	2021	379	0.639	41.4%	0.257	49.6%	0.262	50.4%	0.181	77.0%	0.223	68.1%
Ligue 2 France	2026	97	0.649	44.3%	0.263	47.4%	0.248	50.5%	0.216	69.1%	0.214	68.0%
Ligue 2 France	2025	305	0.666	35.7%	0.256	47.5%	0.249	53.4%	0.231	66.2%	0.193	73.8%
Ligue 2 France	2024	306	0.640	46.4%	0.252	51.6%	0.264	52.9%	0.215	70.9%	0.202	72.2%
Ligue 2 France	2023	380	0.658	41.6%	0.249	53.9%	0.262	51.3%	0.225	67.4%	0.199	74.5%
Ligue 2 France	2022	379	0.653	44.9%	0.254	48.5%	0.255	53.0%	0.224	67.5%	0.178	77.0%
Ligue 2 France	2021	379	0.657	40.6%	0.256	54.6%	0.253	57.3%	0.231	63.9%	0.160	80.7%
Premier Division Ireland	2026	180	0.638	40.0%	0.251	56.1%	0.257	51.1%	0.181	77.2%	0.242	64.4%
Premier Division Ireland	2025	180	0.654	39.4%	0.268	40.6%	0.264	49.4%	0.219	70.0%	0.174	78.3%
Premier Division Ireland	2024	180	0.665	40.0%	0.257	47.2%	0.243	57.8%	0.226	65.0%	0.151	80.6%
Premier Division Ireland	2023	180	0.584	51.7%	0.251	47.8%	0.237	56.1%	0.197	71.1%	0.190	72.2%
Premier Division Ireland	2022	180	0.601	52.2%	0.260	54.4%	0.259	51.7%	0.208	71.1%	0.192	75.6%
Premier Division Ireland	2021	179	0.640	46.4%	0.270	45.8%	0.269	47.5%	0.210	73.2%	0.177	77.7%
Premier League Russia	2026	99	0.630	46.5%	0.260	47.5%	0.263	48.5%	0.183	77.8%	0.224	69.7%
Premier League Ukraine	2026	78	0.633	43.6%	0.239	55.1%	0.253	55.1%	0.192	71.8%	0.175	78.2%
Premier League England	2026	88	0.669	39.8%	0.261	51.1%	0.265	50.0%	0.177	77.3%	0.219	68.2%
Premier League Russia	2025	240	0.593	52.1%	0.247	55.0%	0.246	56.7%	0.195	73.3%	0.185	75.0%
Premier League Ukraine	2025	239	0.606	53.6%	0.245	54.8%	0.248	57.7%	0.212	67.8%	0.210	70.7%
Premier League England	2025	380	0.628	50.0%	0.252	51.6%	0.261	48.7%	0.173	78.9%	0.212	71.3%
Premier League England	2024	380	0.595	49.2%	0.247	56.8%	0.248	57.1%	0.153	81.3%	0.233	63.7%
Premier League Ukraine	2024	240	0.622	47.1%	0.253	52.9%	0.241	55.0%	0.227	65.0%	0.155	81.2%
Premier League Russia	2024	240	0.595	55.0%	0.257	53.8%	0.256	48.8%	0.183	76.2%	0.215	69.6%
Premier League Russia	2023	240	0.636	44.6%	0.248	52.1%	0.248	52.9%	0.189	74.6%	0.205	71.7%
Premier League Ukraine	2023	240	0.635	44.6%	0.252	55.8%	0.256	52.5%	0.210	69.6%	0.181	76.7%
Premier League England	2023	380	0.575	56.3%	0.241	58.9%	0.241	58.7%	0.124	86.1%	0.250	58.2%
Premier League England	2022	380	0.603	50.5%	0.253	49.2%	0.246	55.8%	0.186	75.5%	0.219	68.2%
Premier League Ukraine	2022	240	0.612	50.0%	0.251	51.2%	0.249	55.0%	0.222	67.1%	0.178	75.8%
Premier League Russia	2022	240	0.589	53.8%	0.244	57.5%	0.249	55.0%	0.154	81.7%	0.240	64.6%
Premier League Russia	2021	239	0.668	41.0%	0.256	47.3%	0.261	50.2%	0.193	74.1%	0.199	74.1%
Premier League England	2021	379	0.611	48.8%	0.257	47.2%	0.263	49.9%	0.185	76.5%	0.227	66.5%
Premier League Ukraine	2021	142	0.589	53.5%	0.257	52.1%	0.268	52.8%	0.200	73.2%	0.180	74.6%
Primeira Liga Portugal	2026	84	0.588	52.4%	0.259	46.4%	0.252	56.0%	0.191	75.0%	0.239	63.1%
Primeira Liga Portugal	2025	306	0.588	52.6%	0.259	48.7%	0.253	55.9%	0.192	75.2%	0.214	68.6%
Primeira Liga Portugal	2024	306	0.585	52.3%	0.259	48.4%	0.245	55.2%	0.195	72.9%	0.188	74.5%
Primeira Liga Portugal	2023	306	0.585	51.0%	0.252	57.2%	0.249	52.3%	0.187	74.8%	0.230	66.0%
Primeira Liga Portugal	2022	306	0.552	59.2%	0.255	52.3%	0.250	54.9%	0.226	65.7%	0.189	75.8%
Primeira Liga Portugal	2021	305	0.611	46.2%	0.252	50.5%	0.260	53.8%	0.189	76.1%	0.198	72.5%
Primera División Chile	2026	200	0.635	47.5%	0.250	58.5%	0.259	51.0%	0.195	74.5%	0.230	66.0%
Primera División Chile	2025	240	0.597	52.5%	0.256	47.9%	0.248	55.0%	0.203	70.8%	0.198	73.3%
Primera División Chile	2024	240	0.625	47.1%	0.250	53.3%	0.253	52.9%	0.190	75.0%	0.222	67.5%
Primera División Chile	2023	240	0.662	42.5%	0.253	52.9%	0.261	48.3%	0.183	77.5%	0.198	73.8%
Primera División Chile	2022	240	0.627	45.0%	0.252	52.5%	0.255	55.0%	0.207	71.2%	0.211	70.8%
Primera División Chile	2021	271	0.665	41.3%	0.258	50.2%	0.262	55.4%	0.206	69.4%	0.184	76.4%
Pro League Saudi-Arabia	2026	104	0.558	57.7%	0.265	45.2%	0.249	59.6%	0.180	76.9%	0.242	62.5%
Pro League United-Arab-Emirates	2026	42	0.575	61.9%	0.268	52.4%	0.270	57.1%	0.131	85.7%	0.263	61.9%
Pro League United-Arab-Emirates	2025	182	0.600	52.7%	0.249	53.3%	0.257	48.4%	0.181	75.8%	0.239	65.4%
Pro League Saudi-Arabia	2025	306	0.564	55.6%	0.245	58.8%	0.256	55.6%	0.163	80.1%	0.240	61.8%
Pro League United-Arab-Emirates	2024	182	0.588	53.8%	0.245	59.3%	0.250	56.6%	0.177	79.1%	0.257	52.7%
Pro League Saudi-Arabia	2024	306	0.593	54.6%	0.247	55.9%	0.247	60.5%	0.163	79.1%	0.218	66.0%
Pro League Saudi-Arabia	2023	306	0.586	52.3%	0.249	56.5%	0.239	59.8%	0.172	76.8%	0.235	61.1%
Pro League United-Arab-Emirates	2023	182	0.597	52.2%	0.231	65.4%	0.235	64.8%	0.129	85.7%	0.268	51.1%
Pro League United-Arab-Emirates	2022	182	0.584	56.0%	0.252	54.9%	0.256	51.1%	0.156	80.8%	0.242	62.1%
Pro League Saudi-Arabia	2022	240	0.595	55.4%	0.248	57.9%	0.265	49.6%	0.177	78.3%	0.195	73.3%
Pro League United-Arab-Emirates	2021	180	0.616	50.6%	0.257	48.3%	0.260	50.6%	0.180	76.1%	0.228	67.2%
Pro League Saudi-Arabia	2021	239	0.630	46.9%	0.251	54.4%	0.251	53.1%	0.192	71.5%	0.211	69.0%
Serie A Italy	2026	93	0.569	59.1%	0.240	60.2%	0.255	51.6%	0.138	86.0%	0.234	64.5%
Serie A Brazil	2026	329	0.622	50.2%	0.252	51.1%	0.260	51.4%	0.181	78.1%	0.201	74.8%
Serie A Brazil	2025	380	0.607	49.2%	0.257	49.5%	0.258	55.3%	0.209	72.6%	0.188	75.3%
Serie A Italy	2025	380	0.620	49.2%	0.252	52.9%	0.256	53.2%	0.216	70.3%	0.177	77.6%
Serie A Italy	2024	380	0.608	50.5%	0.256	48.4%	0.257	50.5%	0.199	73.7%	0.199	72.9%
Serie A Brazil	2024	380	0.625	48.4%	0.252	52.4%	0.254	54.2%	0.200	73.2%	0.170	80.0%
Serie A Brazil	2023	380	0.636	46.8%	0.249	53.2%	0.249	57.4%	0.205	69.7%	0.164	79.2%
Serie A Italy	2023	380	0.613	48.2%	0.256	49.7%	0.254	51.1%	0.194	74.7%	0.198	72.1%
Serie A Brazil	2022	380	0.621	44.7%	0.264	46.1%	0.253	54.2%	0.223	67.9%	0.177	78.4%
Serie A Italy	2022	380	0.608	51.8%	0.253	52.1%	0.253	52.9%	0.191	74.7%	0.192	75.8%
Serie A Italy	2021	378	0.631	47.6%	0.243	59.0%	0.243	57.1%	0.170	78.3%	0.216	68.0%
Serie A Brazil	2021	379	0.645	43.5%	0.257	53.0%	0.245	60.4%	0.236	63.6%	0.150	81.5%
Serie B Italy	2026	95	0.694	36.8%	0.255	51.6%	0.264	41.1%	0.166	81.1%	0.188	76.8%
Serie B Italy	2025	380	0.637	44.5%	0.254	49.5%	0.266	48.7%	0.191	75.3%	0.198	74.2%
Serie B Italy	2024	380	0.665	36.8%	0.253	51.6%	0.258	51.3%	0.210	70.3%	0.192	75.8%
Serie B Italy	2023	380	0.669	37.6%	0.259	47.4%	0.258	53.2%	0.206	72.4%	0.185	75.0%
Serie B Italy	2022	380	0.669	38.2%	0.262	47.1%	0.261	55.0%	0.231	66.8%	0.173	78.9%
Serie B Italy	2021	379	0.653	42.0%	0.263	45.6%	0.255	52.8%	0.213	71.2%	0.190	76.3%
Super League China	2026	232	0.655	43.5%	0.241	58.6%	0.249	53.4%	0.164	80.2%	0.247	60.8%
Super League Switzerland	2026	69	0.601	49.3%	0.218	68.1%	0.204	73.9%	0.118	85.5%	0.265	49.3%
Super League Switzerland	2025	198	0.665	44.9%	0.232	64.6%	0.223	66.7%	0.130	84.8%	0.249	57.6%
Super League China	2025	240	0.605	50.4%	0.231	64.2%	0.236	60.0%	0.132	83.8%	0.244	58.8%
Super League China	2024	240	0.567	56.2%	0.243	58.8%	0.246	56.7%	0.176	77.5%	0.241	62.5%
Super League Switzerland	2024	198	0.647	44.4%	0.253	52.0%	0.268	43.4%	0.165	79.8%	0.234	66.7%
Super League Switzerland	2023	198	0.606	49.5%	0.245	56.6%	0.248	53.0%	0.186	75.8%	0.221	70.2%
Super League China	2023	240	0.577	51.2%	0.258	52.1%	0.253	55.4%	0.191	75.0%	0.200	72.1%
Super League China	2022	304	0.570	54.9%	0.252	49.7%	0.237	57.6%	0.168	78.0%	0.194	72.4%
Super League Switzerland	2022	180	0.656	39.4%	0.250	57.8%	0.269	43.9%	0.152	82.8%	0.246	63.3%
Super League Switzerland	2021	179	0.658	44.7%	0.234	63.1%	0.255	58.7%	0.120	87.2%	0.264	53.6%
Super League China	2021	110	0.645	43.6%	0.245	58.2%	0.253	57.3%	0.213	72.7%	0.203	70.9%
Super League 1 Greece	2026	56	0.611	55.4%	0.252	50.0%	0.246	53.6%	0.158	80.4%	0.227	66.1%
Super League 1 Greece	2025	182	0.598	49.5%	0.260	51.1%	0.249	52.7%	0.193	74.2%	0.190	75.3%
Super League 1 Greece	2024	182	0.616	50.5%	0.259	51.1%	0.259	49.5%	0.219	69.2%	0.163	81.3%
Super League 1 Greece	2023	182	0.572	51.6%	0.255	50.5%	0.258	50.5%	0.138	85.2%	0.243	64.3%
Super League 1 Greece	2022	182	0.585	50.5%	0.248	53.8%	0.246	60.4%	0.214	70.3%	0.148	82.4%
Super League 1 Greece	2021	181	0.620	46.4%	0.244	54.1%	0.267	52.5%	0.215	69.1%	0.176	77.9%
Süper Lig Turkey	2026	85	0.618	47.1%	0.265	47.1%	0.255	55.3%	0.186	76.5%	0.218	68.2%
Süper Lig Turkey	2025	306	0.619	48.7%	0.248	55.2%	0.254	55.6%	0.176	75.8%	0.200	72.5%
Süper Lig Turkey	2024	342	0.572	57.3%	0.257	50.6%	0.257	51.2%	0.188	76.0%	0.230	65.5%
Süper Lig Turkey	2023	380	0.595	53.2%	0.255	50.5%	0.257	51.1%	0.178	77.9%	0.216	68.9%
Süper Lig Turkey	2022	341	0.583	54.0%	0.257	53.7%	0.253	55.7%	0.165	80.4%	0.230	66.0%
Süper Lig Turkey	2021	379	0.625	49.1%	0.250	53.8%	0.257	51.7%	0.169	78.4%	0.221	69.9%
Superettan Sweden	2026	229	0.653	41.5%	0.245	56.3%	0.254	55.0%	0.176	77.3%	0.241	63.3%
Superettan Sweden	2025	240	0.634	47.9%	0.245	59.6%	0.253	54.6%	0.181	78.3%	0.240	64.6%
Superettan Sweden	2024	240	0.661	45.0%	0.262	44.2%	0.267	46.7%	0.204	73.8%	0.210	72.5%
Superettan Sweden	2023	240	0.638	49.6%	0.253	50.4%	0.263	50.4%	0.188	76.7%	0.215	69.2%
Superettan Sweden	2022	240	0.669	39.6%	0.246	58.3%	0.257	52.9%	0.165	81.2%	0.227	66.7%
Superettan Sweden	2021	238	0.663	39.5%	0.267	45.4%	0.266	50.8%	0.220	67.6%	0.214	72.7%
Thai League 1 Thailand	2026	51	0.628	49.0%	0.235	62.7%	0.248	56.9%	0.155	80.4%	0.203	72.5%
Thai League 1 Thailand	2025	240	0.604	48.3%	0.249	56.2%	0.251	55.8%	0.185	76.2%	0.203	71.2%
Thai League 1 Thailand	2024	240	0.583	53.8%	0.249	51.7%	0.257	51.7%	0.173	78.8%	0.242	62.9%
Thai League 1 Thailand	2023	240	0.600	47.9%	0.248	55.8%	0.257	55.0%	0.163	80.0%	0.249	59.2%
Thai League 1 Thailand	2022	240	0.609	51.2%	0.257	50.4%	0.258	50.8%	0.200	74.2%	0.211	68.8%
Thai League 1 Thailand	2021	239	0.644	42.7%	0.262	47.7%	0.269	48.5%	0.201	74.1%	0.195	74.9%
Veikkausliiga Finland	2026	132	0.641	41.7%	0.273	42.4%	0.259	49.2%	0.211	72.7%	0.195	74.2%
Veikkausliiga Finland	2025	132	0.606	54.5%	0.256	56.1%	0.245	59.8%	0.172	80.3%	0.286	47.7%
Veikkausliiga Finland	2024	132	0.632	47.0%	0.241	55.3%	0.259	50.0%	0.158	81.8%	0.229	63.6%
Veikkausliiga Finland	2023	132	0.659	40.2%	0.241	59.8%	0.263	52.3%	0.193	74.2%	0.161	80.3%
Veikkausliiga Finland	2022	132	0.617	49.2%	0.261	47.0%	0.265	47.7%	0.181	78.8%	0.218	66.7%
Veikkausliiga Finland	2021	131	0.628	46.6%	0.249	55.7%	0.259	54.2%	0.233	66.4%	0.176	77.1%

Newer markets

Under 2.5, double chance, HT/FT and the other newer markets, graded across every league. Skill compares the Brier score with simply forecasting how often the market lands in general: above zero means the model is adding information.

Page picks covers only the fixtures that were listed on that market's page before kick-off. A well-calibrated model's "landed" figure sits close to what it "expected"; any single market's record still swings with sample size.

Every prediction is locked at kick-off and graded exactly as it was shown. Fixtures played before these markets launched were rebuilt from the model's pre-match snapshot using only results available before kick-off; the "n" column shows how many were recorded live.

Market	n	Brier	Skill	Expected	Landed	Page picks	Picks expected	Picks landed
Under 2.5 Goals	58,531 546 live	0.253	-1.4%	51%	48%	106	63%	43%
BTTS & Over 2.5	58,531 546 live	0.247	-1.6%	40%	42%	161	54%	50%
Win & BTTS	58,531 546 live	0.170	+0.2%	22%	22%	130	33%	30%
Double Chance	58,531 546 live	0.193	+1.9%	74%	73%	142	83%	85%
Draw No Bet	43,529 419 live	0.222	+4.0%	65%	64%	91	81%	80%
First Half Goals	58,489 546 live	0.207	-0.8%	69%	71%	100	81%	75%
Half Time / Full Time	58,489 546 live	0.197	+2.5%	30%	28%	136	40%	35%
Team Over 1.5 Goals	58,531 546 live	0.245	+1.6%	46%	47%	117	66%	60%