Abha 1-0 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Abha vs Al-Raed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium plays host to Abha versus Al-Raed in Pro League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 19 August 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Abha have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Abha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Abha's home record at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Abha are significantly better at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Raed's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Raed have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Raed away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Abha against 0.90 for Al-Raed. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Abha have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Al-Raed in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Abha lead 2W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2023, ended 1–3 with Al-Raed winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Abha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Al-Raed goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Abha 58% versus Al-Raed 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Abha 68% | Al-Raed 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Abha 1.50 xG and Al-Raed 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Abha attack 0.996 / defence 1.166 | Al-Raed attack 0.981 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.415. Data: 31 Abha games / 31 Al-Raed games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Abha 35% | Draw 24% | Al-Raed 41%. Fair-value odds: Abha 2.86 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Raed 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Raed as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Raed if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Abha 70% | Al-Raed 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Abha vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Aug 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Abha 35% | Draw 24% | Al-Raed 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Abha 1.50 / Al-Raed 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Abha attack 0.996 / def 1.166 | Al-Raed attack 0.981 / def 1.095 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.415 • Poisson stance: Al-Raed (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Abha xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Al-Raed xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Abha vs Al-Raed kick off?
Abha vs Al-Raed kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 19 August 2023 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Abha vs Al-Raed?
Abha 1 - 0 Al-Raed.
Where is Abha vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Abha vs Al-Raed part of?
Abha vs Al-Raed is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Abha vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Abha a 35% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 41% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Raed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Abha vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Abha and Al-Raed will score (BTTS).
Will Abha vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Raed?
Record (4 meetings): Abha 2W | Draws 0 | Al-Raed 2W.
What form are Abha and Al-Raed in?
Abha (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Al-Raed (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Abha's attack rating (1.00) and Al-Raed's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Raed's attack (0.98x) against Abha's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Raed Win
35%
2.82
24%
4.21
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Abha xG
Total xG
3.11
1.62
Al-Raed xG
2.82
35%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
20%
5.04
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
7%
14.21
9%
10.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.2 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.8 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Abha vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Abha and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Abha and 1.62 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Abha vs Al-Raed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 31 outings, Abha have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 10W 3D 18L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Abha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Raed's form line: 9W 7D 15L from 31 games, 1.10 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Al-Raed, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Abha against 1.10 for Al-Raed. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Abha have posted 1.40 PPG from 15 outings (6W 3D 6L).
On the road, Al-Raed have gone 4W 4D 7L from 15 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Abha are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 1.32 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Abha
Early Season
Al-Raed
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Abha and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Abha have gone 10W 3D 18L in their last 31 games (1.06 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 9W 7D 15L in their last 31 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Abha at home or Al-Raed away?
Abha's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Abha at home: 1.40 PPG; Al-Raed away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 December 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Abha have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Raed — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Abha
0
Draws
3
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Raed?
From 6 meetings on record, Abha have won 3, Al-Raed have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Abha and Al-Raed last play each other?
They last met on 29 December 2023, when Al-Raed 4-3 Abha.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Abha 67%, Al-Raed 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Abha and 73% for Al-Raed. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Raed in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Abha home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Abha play Al-Raed?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Abha's games and 60% of Al-Raed's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Abha vs Al-Raed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Abha's matches and 73% of Al-Raed's.
Do Abha and Al-Raed tend to score early?
Abha have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Al-Raed in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Abha defy the odds to beat Al-Raed 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Abha beat Al-Raed 1-0 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Abha 1.50 xG and Al-Raed 1.62 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Raed landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Abha attack 1.00 / defence 1.17 against Al-Raed attack 0.98 / defence 1.09, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Abha 35% | Draw 24% | Al-Raed 41%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Abha win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Abha 68%, Al-Raed 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Abha's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Raed's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Abha 1.06 PPG, Al-Raed 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Abha win broke the near-deadlock. Abha (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Raed (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.